Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 10% Seven-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 10% seven-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Avalanche
14 historical signal(s) detected for Avalanche; 13 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (1 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $28.8504 | $30.9735 | +7.36% | 107.36 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $20.8648 | $19.9597 | -4.34% | 102.70 |
| 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-28 | $20.3531 | $20.3248 | -0.14% | 102.56 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $16.6429 | $18.1705 | +9.18% | 111.97 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $15.1362 | $13.3013 | -12.12% | 98.40 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $13.2216 | $13.1091 | -0.85% | 97.56 |
| 2025-12-17 | 2025-12-24 | $12.3382 | $12.1792 | -1.29% | 96.30 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $12.1331 | $12.1950 | +0.51% | 96.80 |
| 2026-01-31 | 2026-02-07 | $10.8979 | $9.2696 | -14.94% | 82.33 |
| 2026-02-10 | 2026-02-17 | $9.0579 | $9.3395 | +3.11% | 84.89 |
| 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-25 | $9.1923 | $9.2033 | +0.12% | 84.99 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $8.1696 | $6.6353 | -18.78% | 69.03 |
| 2026-06-20 | 2026-06-27 | $5.8922 | $6.6154 | +12.27% | 77.50 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Avalanche · Read the full methodology