Transparent historical data
What Happens to Zcash When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
Zcash has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -23.22% and 16.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -44.2% to -36.3% | 1 |
| -36.3% to -28.4% | 1 |
| -28.4% to -20.5% | 0 |
| -20.5% to -12.7% | 1 |
| -12.7% to -4.8% | 0 |
| -4.8% to +3.1% | 0 |
| +3.1% to +11.0% | 1 |
| +11.0% to +18.9% | 1 |
| +18.9% to +26.8% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | 1.41% | 4.45% | 66.7% | 27.84% | -16.73% |
| 3 days | 6 | -11.78% | -8.05% | 33.3% | 15.79% | -35.92% |
| 7 days | 6 | -23.22% | -18.29% | 16.7% | 12.95% | -41.57% |
| 14 days | 6 | -5.20% | -7.30% | 50.0% | 26.78% | -44.21% |
| 30 days | 6 | -27.43% | 6.51% | 16.7% | 167.98% | -37.59% |
| 90 days | 6 | 33.19% | 42.01% | 66.7% | 168.90% | -60.00% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $608.64 | +2.02% | -35.92% | -29.50% | -17.07% | -28.66% | +39.28% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $206.27 | +16.41% | +15.79% | +12.95% | +26.78% | -4.43% | +168.90% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $302.82 | +0.79% | -10.59% | -20.81% | +6.66% | -26.21% | +27.10% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $353.01 | -3.66% | -13.54% | -41.57% | -34.00% | -37.59% | -7.29% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $657.77 | -16.73% | -12.97% | -25.62% | -44.21% | -32.06% | -60.00% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $229.26 | +27.84% | +8.94% | -5.17% | +18.02% | +167.98% | +84.07% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +12.95%
- 2025-10-11: -5.17%
- 2026-02-01: -20.81%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -41.57%
- 2026-06-03: -29.50%
- 2025-11-21: -25.62%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.