Transparent historical data
What Happens to Zcash When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
Zcash has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -5.17% and 42.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -44.2% to -7.1% | 5 |
| -7.1% to +30.1% | 10 |
| +30.1% to +67.2% | 3 |
| +67.2% to +104.3% | 0 |
| +104.3% to +141.4% | 0 |
| +141.4% to +178.6% | 0 |
| +178.6% to +215.7% | 0 |
| +215.7% to +252.8% | 0 |
| +252.8% to +290.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | 0.79% | 0.16% | 52.6% | 27.84% | -16.73% |
| 3 days | 19 | 1.84% | 0.79% | 57.9% | 23.22% | -15.54% |
| 7 days | 19 | -5.17% | 5.04% | 42.1% | 139.50% | -41.57% |
| 14 days | 19 | 9.26% | 21.51% | 63.2% | 289.97% | -44.21% |
| 30 days | 18 | 10.97% | 35.29% | 55.6% | 402.53% | -37.59% |
| 90 days | 18 | 47.24% | 75.66% | 61.1% | 718.42% | -61.69% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $1110.06 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $801.38 | +5.10% | +5.78% | +27.66% | +45.31% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $389.99 | -7.14% | +17.59% | +5.57% | +22.24% | +18.44% | +144.28% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $543.67 | +11.95% | -15.54% | -15.65% | -4.63% | -23.35% | +53.81% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $361.53 | +1.91% | -4.20% | -16.62% | -1.77% | +57.90% | +40.68% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $221.48 | -2.65% | -3.09% | +8.78% | +65.99% | +62.03% | +87.76% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $248.51 | -5.64% | -12.80% | -6.87% | +1.38% | +32.40% | +103.11% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $209.56 | -5.94% | +1.84% | -0.88% | +12.09% | +17.75% | +119.11% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $232.07 | +2.37% | +4.93% | -8.13% | -14.91% | +4.18% | +171.67% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $270.76 | -7.24% | -11.32% | -13.63% | +9.26% | -16.51% | +56.27% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $302.82 | +0.79% | -10.59% | -20.81% | +6.66% | -26.21% | +27.10% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $353.01 | -3.66% | -13.54% | -41.57% | -34.00% | -37.59% | -7.29% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $349.54 | +1.57% | +4.96% | +13.83% | -22.54% | -25.19% | -10.70% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $359.95 | -5.07% | +12.55% | +26.70% | +23.46% | +39.81% | -37.20% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $344.93 | -8.95% | +6.39% | +17.45% | +19.76% | +48.18% | -38.19% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $657.77 | -16.73% | -12.97% | -25.62% | -44.21% | -32.06% | -60.00% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $608.20 | +9.54% | +0.89% | -9.95% | -25.51% | -33.51% | -61.69% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $432.01 | +2.61% | +23.22% | +21.08% | +42.04% | -21.51% | -29.35% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $229.26 | +27.84% | +8.94% | -5.17% | +18.02% | +167.98% | +84.07% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $54.79 | +2.44% | +12.04% | +139.50% | +289.97% | +402.53% | +718.42% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +139.50%
- 2026-08-29: +27.66%
- 2025-12-06: +26.70%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -41.57%
- 2025-11-21: -25.62%
- 2026-02-01: -20.81%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.