Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP When Bitcoin Rises 5% in a Day?
XRP has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.17% and 28.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -12.7% to -10.9% | 1 |
| -10.9% to -9.1% | 0 |
| -9.1% to -7.3% | 3 |
| -7.3% to -5.4% | 0 |
| -5.4% to -3.6% | 0 |
| -3.6% to -1.8% | 0 |
| -1.8% to +0.0% | 0 |
| +0.0% to +1.9% | 0 |
| +1.9% to +3.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 7 | -1.76% | 0.93% | 28.6% | 14.75% | -3.62% |
| 3 days | 7 | -1.97% | 3.28% | 28.6% | 32.45% | -5.55% |
| 7 days | 7 | -2.17% | 2.19% | 28.6% | 28.71% | -8.08% |
| 14 days | 6 | 0.23% | 1.76% | 50.0% | 22.19% | -10.48% |
| 30 days | 5 | -7.85% | -6.46% | 20.0% | 3.70% | -12.73% |
| 90 days | 5 | -15.71% | -16.88% | 0.0% | -4.77% | -35.07% |
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $1.45 | -3.62% | -1.97% | -8.08% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $1.11 | +14.75% | +32.45% | +28.71% | +22.19% | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $1.38 | -0.88% | +5.66% | +3.60% | +2.06% | +3.70% | -21.10% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $1.44 | -1.83% | -2.75% | -3.55% | +2.12% | -8.10% | -15.71% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $1.44 | -1.76% | -3.47% | -0.15% | -3.70% | -7.85% | -7.75% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $1.46 | -2.28% | -1.38% | -3.04% | -1.60% | -7.31% | -4.77% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $2.15 | +2.14% | -5.55% | -2.17% | -10.48% | -12.73% | -35.07% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +28.71%
- 2026-04-14: +3.60%
- 2026-02-26: -0.15%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-09-04: -8.08%
- 2026-03-05: -3.55%
- 2026-02-07: -3.04%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.