Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
XRP has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.59% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -24.2% to -19.6% | 1 |
| -19.6% to -15.0% | 0 |
| -15.0% to -10.4% | 0 |
| -10.4% to -5.8% | 1 |
| -5.8% to -1.2% | 0 |
| -1.2% to +3.4% | 1 |
| +3.4% to +8.0% | 2 |
| +8.0% to +12.6% | 0 |
| +12.6% to +17.2% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -1.68% | 1.72% | 33.3% | 20.47% | -4.05% |
| 3 days | 6 | -1.01% | 0.92% | 50.0% | 18.78% | -11.91% |
| 7 days | 6 | -4.59% | -5.43% | 33.3% | 13.48% | -33.18% |
| 14 days | 6 | 2.69% | -0.64% | 66.7% | 17.24% | -24.18% |
| 30 days | 6 | -6.76% | -6.32% | 16.7% | 15.08% | -23.56% |
| 90 days | 6 | -13.25% | -7.86% | 33.3% | 17.82% | -27.92% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $1.21 | -0.86% | -9.33% | -6.06% | +0.51% | -10.19% | +13.97% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $1.21 | +20.47% | +18.78% | +13.48% | +17.24% | +15.08% | +17.82% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $1.66 | -3.36% | -4.37% | -13.70% | -8.13% | -15.49% | -16.20% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $1.82 | -4.05% | -11.91% | -33.18% | -24.18% | -23.56% | -24.52% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $2.00 | -2.50% | +2.34% | +10.02% | +4.87% | -3.34% | -27.92% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $2.37 | +0.58% | +10.01% | -3.13% | +5.83% | -0.40% | -10.31% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +13.48%
- 2025-11-21: +10.02%
- 2025-10-11: -3.13%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.18%
- 2026-02-01: -13.70%
- 2026-06-03: -6.06%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.