Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
XRP has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.13% and 47.4% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -25.0% to -21.3% | 2 |
| -21.3% to -17.6% | 1 |
| -17.6% to -13.9% | 1 |
| -13.9% to -10.2% | 2 |
| -10.2% to -6.5% | 1 |
| -6.5% to -2.8% | 3 |
| -2.8% to +0.9% | 3 |
| +0.9% to +4.6% | 3 |
| +4.6% to +8.3% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -0.39% | -0.64% | 42.1% | 6.20% | -6.58% |
| 3 days | 19 | 0.03% | -0.43% | 52.6% | 10.01% | -11.91% |
| 7 days | 19 | -0.13% | -2.46% | 47.4% | 10.53% | -33.18% |
| 14 days | 19 | -2.84% | -3.38% | 31.6% | 8.07% | -24.18% |
| 30 days | 18 | -4.01% | -5.86% | 33.3% | 8.34% | -25.03% |
| 90 days | 18 | -19.44% | -17.53% | 11.1% | 32.26% | -38.63% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $1.28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $1.38 | +0.93% | -0.30% | +1.10% | -2.00% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $1.10 | -0.39% | +6.42% | +3.14% | +3.46% | +5.39% | +32.26% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $1.30 | -6.58% | -9.87% | -9.86% | -4.46% | -18.88% | +4.82% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $1.33 | +3.81% | +5.07% | +5.31% | +8.07% | +8.34% | -17.28% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $1.37 | -3.15% | -2.94% | -3.38% | -1.70% | +4.25% | -21.59% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $1.47 | -0.72% | -3.63% | -2.93% | -8.04% | +0.73% | -17.04% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $1.37 | +1.82% | +0.03% | +2.00% | +5.28% | -2.47% | -14.86% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $1.36 | +0.16% | +5.42% | -0.13% | -0.67% | +4.35% | -0.71% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $1.58 | -4.11% | -7.66% | -11.21% | -5.97% | -10.95% | -12.04% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $1.66 | -3.36% | -4.37% | -13.70% | -8.13% | -15.49% | -16.20% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $1.82 | -4.05% | -11.91% | -33.18% | -24.18% | -23.56% | -24.52% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $1.90 | +3.04% | +1.63% | +1.48% | -16.58% | -25.03% | -24.89% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $2.03 | -0.16% | +1.86% | -1.29% | -6.26% | +2.97% | -30.73% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $2.03 | +6.20% | +3.36% | +2.17% | -6.46% | -9.27% | -32.85% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $2.00 | -2.50% | +2.34% | +10.02% | +4.87% | -3.34% | -27.92% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $2.24 | -0.60% | -3.67% | -13.11% | -2.84% | -11.75% | -38.63% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $2.31 | -4.31% | -4.25% | +9.41% | -6.38% | -4.68% | -30.70% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $2.37 | +0.58% | +10.01% | -3.13% | +5.83% | -0.40% | -10.31% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $2.75 | +1.15% | +4.19% | +10.53% | +1.99% | -5.60% | -32.30% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +10.53%
- 2025-11-21: +10.02%
- 2025-11-04: +9.41%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.18%
- 2026-02-01: -13.70%
- 2025-11-15: -13.11%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.