Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP After a 5% One-Day Rise?
XRP has recorded 16 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.02% and 25.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -36.5% to -32.1% | 2 |
| -32.1% to -27.8% | 0 |
| -27.8% to -23.4% | 0 |
| -23.4% to -19.0% | 2 |
| -19.0% to -14.6% | 1 |
| -14.6% to -10.3% | 2 |
| -10.3% to -5.9% | 3 |
| -5.9% to -1.5% | 2 |
| -1.5% to +2.9% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 17 | -1.25% | -0.78% | 35.3% | 14.75% | -9.83% |
| 3 days | 16 | -2.97% | -0.39% | 12.5% | 32.45% | -9.69% |
| 7 days | 16 | -4.02% | -2.76% | 25.0% | 28.71% | -14.43% |
| 14 days | 15 | -6.89% | -4.10% | 26.7% | 22.19% | -15.43% |
| 30 days | 14 | -11.14% | -13.11% | 14.3% | 2.88% | -36.53% |
| 90 days | 14 | -28.06% | -23.05% | 7.1% | 22.29% | -43.18% |
Historical occurrences
17 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 6.08 | $1.42 | -9.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 7.47 | $1.45 | -3.62% | -1.97% | -8.08% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 10.39 | $1.11 | +14.75% | +32.45% | +28.71% | +22.19% | — | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 5.66 | $1.15 | +1.12% | -5.02% | +2.68% | -2.67% | -3.71% | +22.29% |
| 2026-03-17 | 5.57 | $1.54 | -1.10% | -5.44% | -6.62% | -14.07% | -9.55% | -22.97% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.87 | $1.44 | -1.76% | -3.47% | -0.15% | -3.70% | -7.85% | -7.75% |
| 2026-02-15 | 7.29 | $1.52 | -1.82% | -2.12% | -4.64% | -8.72% | +1.23% | -5.76% |
| 2026-02-07 | 20.47 | $1.46 | -2.28% | -1.38% | -3.04% | -1.60% | -7.31% | -4.77% |
| 2026-01-14 | 5.28 | $2.17 | -1.25% | -4.38% | -12.52% | -11.23% | -36.53% | -36.58% |
| 2026-01-06 | 12.34 | $2.35 | -2.17% | -9.69% | -12.46% | -15.43% | -35.51% | -43.18% |
| 2026-01-03 | 6.84 | $2.01 | +0.43% | +17.17% | +4.50% | +3.24% | -20.37% | -34.20% |
| 2025-12-20 | 5.51 | $1.91 | +1.32% | -0.34% | -3.41% | +5.32% | +2.88% | -23.69% |
| 2025-12-03 | 6.20 | $2.15 | +2.14% | -5.55% | -2.17% | -10.48% | -12.73% | -35.07% |
| 2025-11-25 | 8.79 | $2.23 | -1.20% | -1.19% | -8.87% | -6.89% | -16.38% | -38.73% |
| 2025-11-11 | 7.00 | $2.53 | -5.36% | -8.18% | -14.43% | -11.86% | -19.12% | -42.94% |
| 2025-11-06 | 6.04 | $2.34 | -5.65% | -2.47% | +1.85% | -10.10% | -13.13% | -32.42% |
| 2025-10-13 | 6.11 | $2.53 | +3.07% | -4.64% | -5.51% | +4.58% | -5.50% | -17.00% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +28.71%
- 2026-01-03: +4.50%
- 2026-06-08: +2.68%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-11: -14.43%
- 2026-01-14: -12.52%
- 2026-01-06: -12.46%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.