Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 5% One-Day Rise
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 5% one-day rise, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for XRP
17 historical signal(s) detected for XRP; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (2 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $2.5297 | $2.3903 | -5.51% | 94.49 |
| 2025-11-06 | 2025-11-13 | $2.3425 | $2.3858 | +1.85% | 96.24 |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-02 | $2.2261 | $2.0286 | -8.87% | 87.70 |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-12-10 | $2.1544 | $2.1076 | -2.17% | 85.80 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $1.9075 | $1.8425 | -3.41% | 82.87 |
| 2026-01-03 | 2026-01-10 | $2.0089 | $2.0992 | +4.50% | 86.60 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $2.1692 | $1.8975 | -12.52% | 75.75 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $1.4617 | $1.4173 | -3.04% | 73.45 |
| 2026-02-15 | 2026-02-22 | $1.5207 | $1.4501 | -4.64% | 70.04 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $1.4380 | $1.4358 | -0.15% | 69.94 |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-03-24 | $1.5395 | $1.4376 | -6.62% | 65.31 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $1.1549 | $1.1858 | +2.68% | 67.06 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $1.1051 | $1.4225 | +28.71% | 86.31 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $1.4513 | $1.3340 | -8.08% | 79.34 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.