Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP After 3 Consecutive Red Days?
XRP has recorded 28 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.10% and 32.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -32.8% to -24.8% | 2 |
| -24.8% to -16.8% | 2 |
| -16.8% to -8.8% | 5 |
| -8.8% to -0.7% | 7 |
| -0.7% to +7.3% | 7 |
| +7.3% to +15.3% | 1 |
| +15.3% to +23.3% | 1 |
| +23.3% to +31.3% | 0 |
| +31.3% to +39.3% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 28 | -0.60% | 0.17% | 35.7% | 20.47% | -5.00% |
| 3 days | 28 | -1.87% | -0.23% | 35.7% | 18.78% | -9.33% |
| 7 days | 28 | -3.10% | -2.21% | 32.1% | 13.48% | -16.10% |
| 14 days | 28 | -1.30% | -1.29% | 39.3% | 22.96% | -18.65% |
| 30 days | 27 | -3.04% | -2.65% | 37.0% | 39.33% | -32.80% |
| 90 days | 21 | -22.08% | -17.70% | 19.0% | 17.82% | -40.31% |
Historical occurrences
28 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | -0.81 | $1.42 | +2.19% | -1.84% | -5.07% | -1.95% | — | — |
| 2026-08-06 | -1.09 | $1.06 | -2.58% | -2.10% | -5.34% | +4.14% | +31.80% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | -1.44 | $1.09 | +0.56% | -2.40% | -2.81% | -6.48% | +39.33% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | -1.75 | $1.07 | +4.18% | +1.86% | +4.20% | -0.13% | -5.81% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | -2.81 | $1.11 | -1.96% | -0.72% | -0.08% | +2.74% | -7.03% | — |
| 2026-06-26 | -2.83 | $1.04 | +0.40% | +0.37% | +4.27% | +4.82% | +5.27% | — |
| 2026-06-19 | -3.38 | $1.15 | -0.92% | -1.89% | -9.01% | -5.13% | -4.67% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | -6.58 | $1.21 | -0.86% | -9.33% | -6.06% | +0.51% | -10.19% | +13.97% |
| 2026-05-27 | -1.52 | $1.33 | -1.96% | +0.17% | -8.77% | -14.30% | -21.42% | +11.59% |
| 2026-05-18 | -0.87 | $1.40 | -0.84% | -2.56% | -3.70% | -4.95% | -13.16% | -28.48% |
| 2026-04-30 | -0.90 | $1.37 | -0.14% | +1.73% | +4.30% | +4.08% | -3.04% | -22.08% |
| 2026-04-05 | -0.15 | $1.32 | +1.51% | +4.89% | +2.84% | +8.86% | +5.68% | -13.92% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.87 | $1.37 | -3.15% | -2.94% | -3.38% | -1.70% | +4.25% | -21.59% |
| 2026-03-20 | -0.72 | $1.46 | -0.81% | -3.89% | -6.01% | -9.19% | -1.47% | -18.54% |
| 2026-02-20 | -1.29 | $1.42 | +1.11% | -4.11% | -0.69% | -0.91% | -0.67% | -4.05% |
| 2026-02-13 | -0.53 | $1.38 | +2.94% | +8.44% | +3.31% | +2.60% | +3.52% | +3.61% |
| 2026-02-06 | -20.06 | $1.21 | +20.47% | +18.78% | +13.48% | +17.24% | +15.08% | +17.82% |
| 2026-01-31 | -4.05 | $1.74 | -5.00% | -6.69% | -16.10% | -18.65% | -21.81% | -21.45% |
| 2026-01-17 | -0.65 | $2.07 | -0.59% | -4.02% | -7.02% | -16.00% | -28.02% | -29.92% |
| 2026-01-09 | -1.81 | $2.13 | -1.24% | -2.28% | -1.78% | -8.86% | -32.80% | -36.83% |
| 2025-12-24 | -1.49 | $1.87 | -0.60% | -1.61% | +0.12% | +22.96% | +3.46% | -23.23% |
| 2025-12-13 | -1.23 | $2.01 | +0.72% | -5.52% | -5.04% | -8.27% | +3.41% | -30.36% |
| 2025-12-07 | -0.16 | $2.03 | +0.57% | +3.74% | -0.42% | -4.87% | +15.86% | -32.50% |
| 2025-11-22 | -2.50 | $1.95 | -0.01% | +14.19% | +11.82% | +4.38% | -1.42% | -27.03% |
| 2025-11-14 | -2.80 | $2.32 | -3.25% | -4.50% | -13.78% | -5.15% | -12.77% | -40.31% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +13.48%
- 2025-11-22: +11.82%
- 2026-04-30: +4.30%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-31: -16.10%
- 2025-11-14: -13.78%
- 2026-06-19: -9.01%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 3 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.