Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After 3 Consecutive Red Days
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after 3 consecutive red days, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for XRP
28 historical signal(s) detected for XRP; 25 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | 2025-09-28 | $2.9790 | $2.8061 | -5.80% | 94.20 |
| 2025-10-17 | 2025-10-24 | $2.3271 | $2.3947 | +2.91% | 96.93 |
| 2025-10-30 | 2025-11-06 | $2.5501 | $2.3425 | -8.14% | 89.04 |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-21 | $2.3191 | $1.9994 | -13.78% | 76.77 |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-11-29 | $1.9495 | $2.1800 | +11.82% | 85.85 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-12-14 | $2.0316 | $2.0230 | -0.42% | 85.48 |
| 2025-12-24 | 2025-12-31 | $1.8727 | $1.8749 | +0.12% | 85.58 |
| 2026-01-09 | 2026-01-16 | $2.1257 | $2.0878 | -1.78% | 84.06 |
| 2026-01-17 | 2026-01-24 | $2.0741 | $1.9285 | -7.02% | 78.16 |
| 2026-01-31 | 2026-02-07 | $1.7423 | $1.4617 | -16.10% | 65.57 |
| 2026-02-13 | 2026-02-20 | $1.3769 | $1.4225 | +3.31% | 67.74 |
| 2026-02-20 | 2026-02-27 | $1.4225 | $1.4126 | -0.69% | 67.27 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $1.4557 | $1.3681 | -6.01% | 63.23 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $1.3681 | $1.3219 | -3.38% | 61.09 |
| 2026-04-05 | 2026-04-12 | $1.3176 | $1.3550 | +2.84% | 62.83 |
| 2026-04-30 | 2026-05-07 | $1.3706 | $1.4295 | +4.30% | 65.53 |
| 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-25 | $1.4008 | $1.3490 | -3.70% | 63.10 |
| 2026-05-27 | 2026-06-03 | $1.3266 | $1.2102 | -8.77% | 57.57 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $1.2102 | $1.1369 | -6.06% | 54.08 |
| 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-26 | $1.1457 | $1.0424 | -9.01% | 49.20 |
| 2026-06-26 | 2026-07-03 | $1.0424 | $1.0869 | +4.27% | 51.30 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $1.1120 | $1.1111 | -0.08% | 51.26 |
| 2026-07-25 | 2026-08-01 | $1.0913 | $1.0606 | -2.81% | 49.82 |
| 2026-08-06 | 2026-08-13 | $1.0613 | $1.0045 | -5.34% | 47.16 |
| 2026-08-27 | 2026-09-03 | $1.4225 | $1.3504 | -5.07% | 44.77 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.