Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP After a 3% One-Day Rise?
XRP has recorded 34 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.87% and 35.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -47.7% to -39.9% | 1 |
| -39.9% to -32.1% | 9 |
| -32.1% to -24.3% | 4 |
| -24.3% to -16.6% | 8 |
| -16.6% to -8.8% | 1 |
| -8.8% to -1.0% | 3 |
| -1.0% to +6.7% | 0 |
| +6.7% to +14.5% | 0 |
| +14.5% to +22.3% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 35 | -0.82% | 0.51% | 48.6% | 14.75% | -9.83% |
| 3 days | 34 | -2.00% | 0.51% | 35.3% | 32.45% | -6.45% |
| 7 days | 34 | -1.87% | -1.55% | 35.3% | 28.71% | -14.88% |
| 14 days | 33 | -6.44% | -5.85% | 21.2% | 22.19% | -24.52% |
| 30 days | 31 | -9.55% | -11.49% | 12.9% | 3.70% | -36.53% |
| 90 days | 29 | -23.69% | -21.42% | 10.3% | 22.29% | -47.66% |
Historical occurrences
35 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 6.08 | $1.42 | -9.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 7.47 | $1.45 | -3.62% | -1.97% | -8.08% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-24 | 3.87 | $1.52 | -2.64% | -6.45% | -10.69% | -6.44% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 10.39 | $1.11 | +14.75% | +32.45% | +28.71% | +22.19% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.18 | $1.11 | +0.15% | -2.03% | +2.82% | -3.88% | -9.24% | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 3.43 | $1.09 | +4.34% | +6.39% | +0.53% | -0.05% | -2.49% | — |
| 2026-06-15 | 3.09 | $1.19 | +4.38% | +0.00% | -5.20% | -11.76% | -6.30% | +15.22% |
| 2026-06-12 | 4.03 | $1.14 | -0.82% | +3.91% | +0.40% | -8.65% | -3.94% | +22.23% |
| 2026-06-08 | 5.66 | $1.15 | +1.12% | -5.02% | +2.68% | -2.67% | -3.71% | +22.29% |
| 2026-05-15 | 3.93 | $1.48 | -3.34% | -5.51% | -7.64% | -11.35% | -22.42% | -32.24% |
| 2026-05-11 | 3.58 | $1.47 | +0.18% | -3.17% | -4.92% | -8.44% | -22.84% | -29.48% |
| 2026-04-17 | 4.39 | $1.45 | +1.61% | -3.98% | -0.97% | -5.84% | -2.78% | -23.45% |
| 2026-04-14 | 3.81 | $1.38 | -0.88% | +5.66% | +3.60% | +2.06% | +3.70% | -21.10% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.60 | $1.38 | -2.84% | -1.87% | -1.33% | +3.75% | +0.72% | -17.21% |
| 2026-03-17 | 5.57 | $1.54 | -1.10% | -5.44% | -6.62% | -14.07% | -9.55% | -22.97% |
| 2026-03-05 | 4.53 | $1.44 | -1.83% | -2.75% | -3.55% | +2.12% | -8.10% | -15.71% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.87 | $1.44 | -1.76% | -3.47% | -0.15% | -3.70% | -7.85% | -7.75% |
| 2026-02-15 | 7.29 | $1.52 | -1.82% | -2.12% | -4.64% | -8.72% | +1.23% | -5.76% |
| 2026-02-07 | 20.47 | $1.46 | -2.28% | -1.38% | -3.04% | -1.60% | -7.31% | -4.77% |
| 2026-01-27 | 3.64 | $1.91 | +0.82% | -4.92% | -14.88% | -24.52% | -24.71% | -25.01% |
| 2026-01-22 | 3.04 | $1.96 | -0.91% | -0.26% | -1.57% | -22.37% | -26.44% | -26.67% |
| 2026-01-14 | 5.28 | $2.17 | -1.25% | -4.38% | -12.52% | -11.23% | -36.53% | -36.58% |
| 2026-01-05 | 3.85 | $2.10 | +12.34% | +3.33% | -0.86% | -6.34% | -24.45% | -37.12% |
| 2026-01-03 | 6.84 | $2.01 | +0.43% | +17.17% | +4.50% | +3.24% | -20.37% | -34.20% |
| 2025-12-20 | 5.51 | $1.91 | +1.32% | -0.34% | -3.41% | +5.32% | +2.88% | -23.69% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +28.71%
- 2025-10-21: +5.59%
- 2025-11-24: +5.49%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-27: -14.88%
- 2026-01-14: -12.52%
- 2026-08-24: -10.69%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.