Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Rise
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day rise, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for XRP
35 historical signal(s) detected for XRP; 26 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (9 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-25 | 2025-10-02 | $2.9279 | $2.9483 | +0.70% | 100.70 |
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $2.9483 | $2.8796 | -2.33% | 98.35 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $2.5297 | $2.3903 | -5.51% | 92.94 |
| 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-28 | $2.4946 | $2.6339 | +5.59% | 98.13 |
| 2025-11-06 | 2025-11-13 | $2.3425 | $2.3858 | +1.85% | 99.94 |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-12-01 | $2.0463 | $2.1587 | +5.49% | 105.43 |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-12-10 | $2.1544 | $2.1076 | -2.17% | 103.13 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $1.9075 | $1.8425 | -3.41% | 99.62 |
| 2026-01-03 | 2026-01-10 | $2.0089 | $2.0992 | +4.50% | 104.10 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $2.1692 | $1.8975 | -12.52% | 91.06 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026-01-29 | $1.9553 | $1.9246 | -1.57% | 89.64 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $1.4617 | $1.4173 | -3.04% | 86.91 |
| 2026-02-15 | 2026-02-22 | $1.5207 | $1.4501 | -4.64% | 82.88 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $1.4380 | $1.4358 | -0.15% | 82.75 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $1.4358 | $1.3847 | -3.55% | 79.81 |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-03-24 | $1.5395 | $1.4376 | -6.62% | 74.53 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $1.3820 | $1.3636 | -1.33% | 73.54 |
| 2026-04-17 | 2026-04-24 | $1.4536 | $1.4395 | -0.97% | 72.83 |
| 2026-05-11 | 2026-05-18 | $1.4733 | $1.4008 | -4.92% | 69.24 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $1.1549 | $1.1858 | +2.68% | 71.10 |
| 2026-06-15 | 2026-06-22 | $1.1858 | $1.1241 | -5.20% | 67.40 |
| 2026-07-03 | 2026-07-10 | $1.0869 | $1.0927 | +0.53% | 67.75 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $1.1111 | $1.1424 | +2.82% | 69.66 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $1.1051 | $1.4225 | +28.71% | 89.67 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $1.4513 | $1.3340 | -8.08% | 82.42 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.