Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP After a 3% One-Day Drop?
XRP has recorded 37 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.93% and 35.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -39.7% to -31.7% | 7 |
| -31.7% to -23.7% | 8 |
| -23.7% to -15.7% | 8 |
| -15.7% to -7.7% | 1 |
| -7.7% to +0.3% | 4 |
| +0.3% to +8.3% | 0 |
| +8.3% to +16.3% | 1 |
| +16.3% to +24.3% | 0 |
| +24.3% to +32.3% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 38 | -0.42% | -0.62% | 44.7% | 6.20% | -20.06% |
| 3 days | 38 | -1.43% | -1.25% | 39.5% | 10.01% | -17.01% |
| 7 days | 37 | -2.93% | -3.07% | 35.1% | 10.53% | -33.18% |
| 14 days | 36 | -3.88% | -5.00% | 25.0% | 5.83% | -24.18% |
| 30 days | 34 | -6.51% | -6.56% | 32.4% | 33.55% | -32.48% |
| 90 days | 31 | -23.16% | -18.84% | 9.7% | 32.26% | -39.69% |
Historical occurrences
39 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -9.83 | $1.28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-11 | -4.35 | $1.33 | +1.63% | +0.57% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | -3.62 | $1.40 | +0.97% | -0.19% | -3.07% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -4.83 | $1.38 | +0.93% | -0.30% | +1.10% | -2.00% | — | — |
| 2026-08-26 | -3.13 | $1.43 | -0.81% | -3.53% | -5.76% | -1.17% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -4.21 | $1.07 | +0.27% | +1.59% | +0.89% | -5.05% | +33.55% | — |
| 2026-06-25 | -3.27 | $1.07 | -2.83% | -2.58% | -2.05% | +1.62% | +1.72% | — |
| 2026-06-19 | -3.38 | $1.15 | -0.92% | -1.89% | -9.01% | -5.13% | -4.67% | — |
| 2026-06-11 | -3.52 | $1.10 | +4.03% | +4.86% | +8.11% | -2.20% | +0.65% | +29.21% |
| 2026-06-06 | -6.03 | $1.10 | -0.39% | +6.42% | +3.14% | +3.46% | +5.39% | +32.26% |
| 2026-06-03 | -6.58 | $1.21 | -0.86% | -9.33% | -6.06% | +0.51% | -10.19% | +13.97% |
| 2026-05-16 | -3.34 | $1.43 | -1.39% | -3.07% | -7.03% | -7.27% | -17.26% | -29.64% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.87 | $1.37 | -3.15% | -2.94% | -3.38% | -1.70% | +4.25% | -21.59% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.70 | $1.47 | -0.72% | -3.63% | -2.93% | -8.04% | +0.73% | -17.04% |
| 2026-02-28 | -3.32 | $1.37 | +1.63% | +2.42% | +0.41% | +2.42% | -2.77% | -3.77% |
| 2026-02-23 | -5.94 | $1.36 | +0.16% | +5.42% | -0.13% | -0.67% | +4.35% | -0.71% |
| 2026-02-19 | -3.18 | $1.44 | -1.29% | +0.62% | -0.22% | -0.37% | +0.19% | -5.72% |
| 2026-02-05 | -4.11 | $1.52 | -20.06% | -5.89% | -8.81% | -5.06% | -9.65% | -6.88% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.65 | $1.82 | -4.05% | -11.91% | -33.18% | -24.18% | -23.56% | -24.52% |
| 2026-01-26 | -5.50 | $1.84 | +3.64% | +4.44% | -13.19% | -21.80% | -26.30% | -22.60% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.68 | $1.90 | +3.04% | +1.63% | +1.48% | -16.58% | -25.03% | -24.89% |
| 2026-01-19 | -4.82 | $1.96 | +1.44% | -0.36% | -6.09% | -18.48% | -24.15% | -26.91% |
| 2026-01-08 | -5.98 | $2.16 | -1.81% | -3.01% | -1.05% | -9.68% | -32.48% | -36.17% |
| 2025-12-18 | -3.47 | $1.86 | -2.89% | +3.81% | -0.02% | -1.14% | +11.41% | -18.22% |
| 2025-12-16 | -4.15 | $1.90 | +1.63% | -4.73% | +0.17% | -2.59% | +12.88% | -23.16% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +10.53%
- 2025-11-04: +9.41%
- 2026-06-11: +8.11%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.18%
- 2026-01-26: -13.19%
- 2025-11-15: -13.11%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.