Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for XRP
39 historical signal(s) detected for XRP; 25 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (14 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-30 | $2.8531 | $2.8804 | +0.96% | 100.96 |
| 2025-10-08 | 2025-10-15 | $2.8557 | $2.5051 | -12.28% | 88.56 |
| 2025-10-15 | 2025-10-22 | $2.5051 | $2.4235 | -3.26% | 85.68 |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-11-07 | $2.4394 | $2.2103 | -9.39% | 77.63 |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-11-14 | $2.2103 | $2.3191 | +4.92% | 81.45 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $2.2436 | $1.9495 | -13.11% | 70.78 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $2.0286 | $2.0727 | +2.17% | 72.31 |
| 2025-12-11 | 2025-12-18 | $2.0429 | $1.8617 | -8.87% | 65.90 |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-12-25 | $1.8617 | $1.8614 | -0.02% | 65.89 |
| 2026-01-08 | 2026-01-15 | $2.1650 | $2.1421 | -1.05% | 65.20 |
| 2026-01-19 | 2026-01-26 | $1.9624 | $1.8428 | -6.09% | 61.23 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $1.8428 | $1.5997 | -13.19% | 53.15 |
| 2026-02-05 | 2026-02-12 | $1.5179 | $1.3842 | -8.81% | 48.47 |
| 2026-02-19 | 2026-02-26 | $1.4411 | $1.4380 | -0.22% | 48.36 |
| 2026-02-28 | 2026-03-07 | $1.3658 | $1.3714 | +0.41% | 48.56 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $1.4663 | $1.4232 | -2.93% | 47.14 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $1.3681 | $1.3219 | -3.38% | 45.54 |
| 2026-05-16 | 2026-05-23 | $1.4331 | $1.3324 | -7.03% | 42.34 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $1.2102 | $1.1369 | -6.06% | 39.77 |
| 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-18 | $1.0969 | $1.1858 | +8.11% | 43.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-26 | $1.1457 | $1.0424 | -9.01% | 39.12 |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-04 | $1.0651 | $1.0746 | +0.89% | 39.47 |
| 2026-08-26 | 2026-09-02 | $1.4340 | $1.3515 | -5.76% | 37.20 |
| 2026-09-05 | 2026-09-12 | $1.3987 | $1.3558 | -3.07% | 36.06 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.