Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP After a 2x Volume Spike?
XRP has recorded 13 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.13% and 15.4% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -13.7% to -9.0% | 3 |
| -9.0% to -4.3% | 3 |
| -4.3% to +0.4% | 5 |
| +0.4% to +5.1% | 0 |
| +5.1% to +9.9% | 0 |
| +9.9% to +14.6% | 1 |
| +14.6% to +19.3% | 0 |
| +19.3% to +24.0% | 0 |
| +24.0% to +28.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 13 | 0.18% | 1.80% | 53.8% | 20.47% | -6.03% |
| 3 days | 13 | -1.10% | 2.29% | 38.5% | 32.45% | -9.69% |
| 7 days | 13 | -3.13% | -1.72% | 15.4% | 28.71% | -13.70% |
| 14 days | 12 | -6.99% | -3.93% | 33.3% | 22.19% | -22.37% |
| 30 days | 11 | -15.49% | -12.33% | 9.1% | 15.08% | -35.51% |
| 90 days | 11 | -10.31% | -8.95% | 36.4% | 17.82% | -43.18% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 2.31 | $1.28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 2.79 | $1.45 | -3.62% | -1.97% | -8.08% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 2.91 | $1.11 | +14.75% | +32.45% | +28.71% | +22.19% | — | — |
| 2026-06-05 | 2.60 | $1.17 | -6.03% | -1.10% | -2.27% | -1.88% | -0.96% | +15.65% |
| 2026-06-03 | 2.46 | $1.21 | -0.86% | -9.33% | -6.06% | +0.51% | -10.19% | +13.97% |
| 2026-05-29 | 2.63 | $1.31 | +1.11% | +1.31% | -11.16% | -13.18% | -20.48% | +8.23% |
| 2026-05-23 | 2.18 | $1.33 | +1.65% | +1.10% | -0.26% | -17.64% | -15.63% | -4.82% |
| 2026-05-11 | 2.45 | $1.47 | +0.18% | -3.17% | -4.92% | -8.44% | -22.84% | -29.48% |
| 2026-04-17 | 2.04 | $1.45 | +1.61% | -3.98% | -0.97% | -5.84% | -2.78% | -23.45% |
| 2026-02-06 | 2.67 | $1.21 | +20.47% | +18.78% | +13.48% | +17.24% | +15.08% | +17.82% |
| 2026-02-01 | 2.38 | $1.66 | -3.36% | -4.37% | -13.70% | -8.13% | -15.49% | -16.20% |
| 2026-01-22 | 2.00 | $1.96 | -0.91% | -0.26% | -1.57% | -22.37% | -26.44% | -26.67% |
| 2026-01-06 | 2.60 | $2.35 | -2.17% | -9.69% | -12.46% | -15.43% | -35.51% | -43.18% |
| 2025-10-11 | 2.75 | $2.37 | +0.58% | +10.01% | -3.13% | +5.83% | -0.40% | -10.31% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +28.71%
- 2026-02-06: +13.48%
- 2026-05-23: -0.26%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -13.70%
- 2026-01-06: -12.46%
- 2026-05-29: -11.16%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.