Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP After a 1.5x Volume Spike?
XRP has recorded 27 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.92% and 22.2% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -36.5% to -28.1% | 2 |
| -28.1% to -19.7% | 6 |
| -19.7% to -11.2% | 5 |
| -11.2% to -2.8% | 3 |
| -2.8% to +5.7% | 6 |
| +5.7% to +14.1% | 1 |
| +14.1% to +22.5% | 1 |
| +22.5% to +31.0% | 0 |
| +31.0% to +39.4% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 28 | -0.78% | 0.27% | 42.9% | 20.47% | -9.83% |
| 3 days | 27 | -1.87% | -0.87% | 25.9% | 32.45% | -25.36% |
| 7 days | 27 | -4.92% | -3.40% | 22.2% | 28.71% | -33.18% |
| 14 days | 27 | -7.61% | -3.89% | 29.6% | 42.50% | -24.18% |
| 30 days | 25 | -11.68% | -9.95% | 20.0% | 39.40% | -36.53% |
| 90 days | 24 | -23.21% | -18.53% | 16.7% | 17.82% | -43.18% |
Historical occurrences
28 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 1.83 | $1.42 | -9.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | 1.70 | $1.36 | +1.57% | -0.56% | +4.77% | -1.20% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 2.91 | $1.11 | +14.75% | +32.45% | +28.71% | +22.19% | — | — |
| 2026-08-08 | 1.54 | $1.02 | +1.80% | -0.91% | -2.15% | +42.50% | +39.40% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 1.85 | $1.24 | -1.71% | -7.43% | -8.87% | -14.78% | -10.09% | +8.40% |
| 2026-06-02 | 1.66 | $1.30 | -6.58% | -9.87% | -9.86% | -4.46% | -18.88% | +4.82% |
| 2026-05-29 | 2.63 | $1.31 | +1.11% | +1.31% | -11.16% | -13.18% | -20.48% | +8.23% |
| 2026-05-23 | 2.18 | $1.33 | +1.65% | +1.10% | -0.26% | -17.64% | -15.63% | -4.82% |
| 2026-05-19 | 1.81 | $1.39 | -2.19% | -1.42% | -3.03% | -6.74% | -14.63% | -28.54% |
| 2026-05-15 | 1.84 | $1.48 | -3.34% | -5.51% | -7.64% | -11.35% | -22.42% | -32.24% |
| 2026-05-13 | 1.77 | $1.44 | -0.65% | -0.19% | -5.37% | -7.61% | -20.53% | -29.57% |
| 2026-05-11 | 2.45 | $1.47 | +0.18% | -3.17% | -4.92% | -8.44% | -22.84% | -29.48% |
| 2026-04-17 | 2.04 | $1.45 | +1.61% | -3.98% | -0.97% | -5.84% | -2.78% | -23.45% |
| 2026-04-10 | 1.58 | $1.34 | +0.83% | -1.46% | +8.08% | +7.03% | +5.76% | -18.94% |
| 2026-04-08 | 1.51 | $1.38 | -2.84% | -1.87% | -1.33% | +3.75% | +0.72% | -17.21% |
| 2026-03-24 | 1.51 | $1.44 | -0.99% | -4.83% | -7.98% | -8.10% | -0.52% | -21.81% |
| 2026-03-17 | 1.57 | $1.54 | -1.10% | -5.44% | -6.62% | -14.07% | -9.55% | -22.97% |
| 2026-02-16 | 1.84 | $1.49 | +0.40% | -3.48% | -8.64% | -8.76% | +1.98% | -5.35% |
| 2026-02-06 | 2.67 | $1.21 | +20.47% | +18.78% | +13.48% | +17.24% | +15.08% | +17.82% |
| 2026-02-03 | 1.87 | $1.63 | -2.63% | -25.36% | -11.32% | -7.79% | -11.68% | -14.58% |
| 2026-01-30 | 1.67 | $1.82 | -4.05% | -11.91% | -33.18% | -24.18% | -23.56% | -24.52% |
| 2026-01-22 | 2.00 | $1.96 | -0.91% | -0.26% | -1.57% | -22.37% | -26.44% | -26.67% |
| 2026-01-14 | 1.79 | $2.17 | -1.25% | -4.38% | -12.52% | -11.23% | -36.53% | -36.58% |
| 2026-01-06 | 2.60 | $2.35 | -2.17% | -9.69% | -12.46% | -15.43% | -35.51% | -43.18% |
| 2025-11-22 | 1.91 | $1.95 | -0.01% | +14.19% | +11.82% | +4.38% | -1.42% | -27.03% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +28.71%
- 2026-02-06: +13.48%
- 2025-11-22: +11.82%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.18%
- 2025-11-14: -13.78%
- 2026-01-14: -12.52%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.