Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 1.5x Volume Spike
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 1.5x volume spike, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for XRP
28 historical signal(s) detected for XRP; 22 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (6 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $2.3701 | $2.2959 | -3.13% | 96.87 |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-11-12 | $2.2090 | $2.3904 | +8.21% | 104.83 |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-21 | $2.3191 | $1.9994 | -13.78% | 90.38 |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-11-29 | $1.9495 | $2.1800 | +11.82% | 101.07 |
| 2026-01-06 | 2026-01-13 | $2.3538 | $2.0605 | -12.46% | 88.47 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $2.1692 | $1.8975 | -12.52% | 77.39 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026-01-29 | $1.9553 | $1.9246 | -1.57% | 76.18 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $1.8159 | $1.2133 | -33.18% | 50.90 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $1.2133 | $1.3769 | +13.48% | 57.76 |
| 2026-02-16 | 2026-02-23 | $1.4930 | $1.3640 | -8.64% | 52.77 |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-03-24 | $1.5395 | $1.4376 | -6.62% | 49.28 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $1.4376 | $1.3229 | -7.98% | 45.35 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $1.3820 | $1.3636 | -1.33% | 44.74 |
| 2026-04-17 | 2026-04-24 | $1.4536 | $1.4395 | -0.97% | 44.31 |
| 2026-05-11 | 2026-05-18 | $1.4733 | $1.4008 | -4.92% | 42.13 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $1.3891 | $1.3470 | -3.03% | 40.85 |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-05 | $1.3144 | $1.1677 | -11.16% | 36.29 |
| 2026-06-16 | 2026-06-23 | $1.2377 | $1.1278 | -8.87% | 33.07 |
| 2026-08-08 | 2026-08-15 | $1.0206 | $0.9986 | -2.15% | 32.36 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $1.1051 | $1.4225 | +28.71% | 41.65 |
| 2026-08-31 | 2026-09-07 | $1.3579 | $1.4226 | +4.77% | 43.64 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.