Transparent historical data
What Happens to TRON When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
TRON has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.47% and 42.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -6.9% to -4.9% | 3 |
| -4.9% to -2.9% | 2 |
| -2.9% to -0.9% | 0 |
| -0.9% to +1.1% | 1 |
| +1.1% to +3.1% | 1 |
| +3.1% to +5.1% | 0 |
| +5.1% to +7.0% | 1 |
| +7.0% to +9.0% | 0 |
| +9.0% to +11.0% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | 0.31% | 0.26% | 64.3% | 2.69% | -2.09% |
| 3 days | 14 | 0.32% | -0.03% | 57.1% | 3.42% | -5.60% |
| 7 days | 14 | -0.47% | -0.75% | 42.9% | 5.39% | -8.66% |
| 14 days | 14 | -2.70% | -2.92% | 35.7% | 3.65% | -11.32% |
| 30 days | 14 | -4.16% | -2.85% | 28.6% | 9.28% | -12.91% |
| 90 days | 11 | -0.14% | 1.27% | 45.5% | 11.02% | -6.88% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $0.33 | -0.45% | -0.51% | +0.61% | +0.75% | -1.07% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $0.33 | -0.83% | -0.60% | -0.48% | +1.77% | +3.75% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $0.32 | +0.47% | -0.35% | +0.76% | +0.21% | +3.62% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $0.36 | +0.73% | +3.42% | -4.11% | -10.64% | -7.99% | -5.33% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $0.36 | +0.15% | +2.68% | +4.50% | -3.42% | -9.55% | -6.88% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $0.29 | -0.24% | -3.44% | -8.66% | -4.98% | -4.33% | +9.59% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $0.30 | +0.77% | +0.17% | -0.90% | -3.73% | -3.99% | +10.80% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $0.30 | +1.26% | +0.47% | +3.55% | -0.27% | -6.78% | +11.02% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $0.27 | -1.01% | +1.63% | +2.26% | +2.09% | +9.28% | +5.59% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $0.29 | +0.59% | -1.48% | -4.14% | -1.98% | +2.91% | -0.14% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $0.28 | +1.53% | +0.90% | +5.39% | +3.65% | -0.22% | +1.26% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $0.32 | +0.15% | -5.60% | -8.16% | -11.32% | -12.91% | -3.11% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $0.32 | -2.09% | +1.49% | -0.64% | -7.39% | -6.73% | -3.66% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $0.31 | +2.69% | +0.76% | -0.47% | -5.56% | -5.82% | -5.20% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-04: +5.39%
- 2026-05-19: +4.50%
- 2026-01-10: +3.55%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -8.66%
- 2025-10-22: -8.16%
- 2025-12-06: -4.14%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.