Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 25, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for TRON
14 historical signal(s) detected for TRON; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $0.3146 | $0.3131 | -0.47% | 99.53 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $0.3219 | $0.2956 | -8.16% | 91.41 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $0.2811 | $0.2963 | +5.39% | 96.33 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $0.2856 | $0.2738 | -4.14% | 92.34 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $0.2738 | $0.2800 | +2.26% | 94.43 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $0.2982 | $0.3088 | +3.55% | 97.78 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $0.2969 | $0.2943 | -0.90% | 96.90 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $0.2948 | $0.2693 | -8.66% | 88.51 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $0.3554 | $0.3714 | +4.50% | 92.50 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $0.3242 | $0.3267 | +0.76% | 93.20 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $0.3285 | $0.3269 | -0.48% | 92.76 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.