Transparent historical data
What Happens to TRON When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
TRON has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.53% and 41.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -7.9% to -5.6% | 1 |
| -5.6% to -3.3% | 1 |
| -3.3% to -0.9% | 0 |
| -0.9% to +1.4% | 2 |
| +1.4% to +3.7% | 0 |
| +3.7% to +6.0% | 1 |
| +6.0% to +8.3% | 1 |
| +8.3% to +10.6% | 3 |
| +10.6% to +12.9% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | 0.23% | 0.32% | 58.3% | 2.04% | -0.97% |
| 3 days | 12 | -0.07% | -0.00% | 41.7% | 3.93% | -3.67% |
| 7 days | 12 | -1.53% | -1.02% | 41.7% | 4.83% | -8.66% |
| 14 days | 12 | -3.33% | -1.09% | 33.3% | 6.98% | -6.12% |
| 30 days | 12 | -1.62% | 0.22% | 41.7% | 10.76% | -7.05% |
| 90 days | 11 | 7.42% | 4.96% | 72.7% | 12.92% | -7.88% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $0.33 | -0.97% | -0.37% | -1.73% | -0.61% | -1.38% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $0.33 | +0.16% | -3.67% | -2.89% | -4.70% | -4.53% | +0.02% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $0.30 | +2.04% | +2.38% | +2.62% | +6.68% | +8.56% | +5.93% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $0.29 | -0.24% | -3.44% | -8.66% | -4.98% | -4.33% | +9.59% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $0.30 | +0.29% | -0.13% | -3.71% | -5.96% | -3.91% | +9.61% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $0.30 | +2.02% | -1.34% | -1.32% | -5.43% | -4.63% | +11.28% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $0.28 | +0.93% | +3.93% | +4.83% | +6.98% | +3.43% | +10.13% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $0.28 | +0.30% | +2.21% | +2.99% | +5.76% | +5.94% | +12.92% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $0.28 | +0.37% | +0.80% | +3.97% | +2.74% | +10.76% | +7.42% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $0.29 | -0.15% | -1.75% | -5.67% | -1.96% | +1.65% | -0.94% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $0.29 | -0.56% | -0.01% | -2.71% | -6.12% | -7.05% | -3.48% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $0.29 | -0.32% | +1.35% | +0.06% | -5.46% | -1.87% | -7.88% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-01: +4.83%
- 2025-12-15: +3.97%
- 2025-12-26: +2.99%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -8.66%
- 2025-12-07: -5.67%
- 2026-01-26: -3.71%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.