Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 20, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for TRON
12 historical signal(s) detected for TRON; 9 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-15 | $0.2923 | $0.2925 | +0.06% | 100.06 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-12-14 | $0.2873 | $0.2710 | -5.67% | 94.38 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-22 | $0.2772 | $0.2882 | +3.97% | 98.14 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-02 | $0.2786 | $0.2870 | +2.99% | 101.07 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026-01-29 | $0.2992 | $0.2953 | -1.32% | 99.74 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $0.2948 | $0.2693 | -8.66% | 91.10 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $0.3035 | $0.3115 | +2.62% | 93.49 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $0.3323 | $0.3227 | -2.89% | 90.78 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $0.3315 | $0.3257 | -1.73% | 89.21 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.