Transparent historical data
What Happens to TRON When Bitcoin Rises 5% in a Day?
TRON has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 1.47% and 100.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| +0.8% to +4.2% | 2 |
| +4.2% to +7.6% | 0 |
| +7.6% to +11.0% | 0 |
| +11.0% to +14.4% | 0 |
| +14.4% to +17.8% | 1 |
| +17.8% to +21.2% | 0 |
| +21.2% to +24.7% | 0 |
| +24.7% to +28.1% | 1 |
| +28.1% to +31.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $0.33 | +0.21% | +1.33% | +2.77% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $0.33 | +0.93% | +2.97% | +0.52% | -2.78% | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $0.32 | +1.06% | +2.04% | +2.66% | +1.51% | +9.04% | +3.39% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $0.29 | -0.66% | -0.14% | +1.47% | +6.03% | +13.61% | +15.75% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $0.29 | +0.18% | -1.14% | +0.65% | +2.13% | +8.97% | +31.47% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $0.27 | +1.57% | +3.87% | +3.04% | +4.22% | +5.72% | +27.46% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $0.28 | -0.20% | +1.61% | +0.43% | -0.31% | +2.11% | +0.80% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-07: +3.04%
- 2026-09-04: +2.77%
- 2026-04-14: +2.66%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-12-03: +0.43%
- 2026-08-20: +0.52%
- 2026-02-26: +0.65%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.