Transparent historical data
What Happens to TRON When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
TRON has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.87% and 16.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -8.7% to -7.2% | 1 |
| -7.2% to -5.8% | 0 |
| -5.8% to -4.4% | 0 |
| -4.4% to -3.0% | 1 |
| -3.0% to -1.6% | 2 |
| -1.6% to -0.2% | 0 |
| -0.2% to +1.2% | 1 |
| +1.2% to +2.6% | 0 |
| +2.6% to +4.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $0.33 | +0.16% | -3.67% | -2.89% | -4.70% | -4.53% | +0.02% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $0.27 | +1.68% | +3.25% | +4.02% | +5.87% | +6.48% | +28.57% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $0.29 | -0.55% | -0.14% | -2.85% | -1.32% | -1.02% | +14.21% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $0.29 | -0.24% | -3.44% | -8.66% | -4.98% | -4.33% | +9.59% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $0.28 | -1.41% | -1.88% | -0.05% | +2.11% | +0.48% | -0.57% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $0.32 | -1.94% | +0.65% | -3.63% | -5.29% | -9.40% | -8.14% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +4.02%
- 2025-11-21: -0.05%
- 2026-02-01: -2.85%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -8.66%
- 2025-10-11: -3.63%
- 2026-06-03: -2.89%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.