Transparent historical data
What Happens to TRON When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
TRON has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.90% and 36.8% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -4.2% to -3.4% | 2 |
| -3.4% to -2.5% | 2 |
| -2.5% to -1.7% | 1 |
| -1.7% to -0.9% | 2 |
| -0.9% to -0.0% | 2 |
| -0.0% to +0.8% | 3 |
| +0.8% to +1.7% | 2 |
| +1.7% to +2.5% | 3 |
| +2.5% to +3.4% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -0.20% | -0.14% | 42.1% | 1.80% | -3.19% |
| 3 days | 19 | 0.17% | -0.14% | 52.6% | 3.36% | -4.22% |
| 7 days | 19 | -0.90% | -0.80% | 36.8% | 5.39% | -8.66% |
| 14 days | 19 | 0.46% | 0.06% | 52.6% | 8.83% | -7.30% |
| 30 days | 18 | 0.13% | 0.42% | 50.0% | 15.07% | -10.62% |
| 90 days | 18 | 2.97% | 4.62% | 66.7% | 25.86% | -15.72% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $0.33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $0.34 | -0.20% | -2.65% | -2.93% | -0.86% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $0.32 | +1.22% | +2.02% | -1.54% | +1.07% | +2.77% | +3.32% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $0.34 | -3.19% | -3.22% | -4.86% | -7.30% | -8.02% | -2.13% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $0.32 | -0.25% | +1.83% | +2.45% | +0.72% | +8.62% | +2.61% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $0.31 | -0.19% | +3.27% | +3.95% | +6.31% | +4.04% | +4.97% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $0.30 | -0.30% | +2.17% | +3.36% | +6.81% | +7.69% | +4.03% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $0.28 | +0.76% | +0.35% | +3.13% | +8.83% | +15.07% | +16.75% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $0.29 | -2.22% | -0.99% | -2.52% | +0.46% | +6.25% | +25.86% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $0.29 | -1.00% | -4.22% | -0.55% | -1.29% | -0.22% | +19.25% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $0.29 | -0.55% | -0.14% | -2.85% | -1.32% | -1.02% | +14.21% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $0.29 | -0.24% | -3.44% | -8.66% | -4.98% | -4.33% | +9.59% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $0.30 | +0.77% | +0.17% | -0.90% | -3.73% | -3.99% | +10.80% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $0.29 | +0.59% | -1.48% | -4.14% | -1.98% | +2.91% | -0.14% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $0.28 | +1.50% | +3.36% | +1.61% | +0.48% | +2.69% | +1.43% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $0.28 | -1.41% | -1.88% | -0.05% | +2.11% | +0.48% | -0.57% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $0.29 | +0.70% | -0.37% | -5.51% | -3.90% | -5.22% | -4.23% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $0.28 | +1.53% | +0.90% | +5.39% | +3.65% | -0.22% | +1.26% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $0.32 | -1.94% | +0.65% | -3.63% | -5.29% | -9.40% | -8.14% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $0.33 | +1.80% | +0.97% | +3.13% | +1.31% | -10.62% | -15.72% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-04: +5.39%
- 2026-03-27: +3.95%
- 2026-03-19: +3.36%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -8.66%
- 2025-11-15: -5.51%
- 2026-06-02: -4.86%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.