Transparent historical data
What Happens to TRON After a 1.5x Volume Spike?
TRON has recorded 18 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.46% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -10.6% to -8.6% | 4 |
| -8.6% to -6.7% | 1 |
| -6.7% to -4.7% | 1 |
| -4.7% to -2.7% | 2 |
| -2.7% to -0.7% | 1 |
| -0.7% to +1.2% | 2 |
| +1.2% to +3.2% | 0 |
| +3.2% to +5.2% | 2 |
| +5.2% to +7.2% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 18 | 0.32% | -0.23% | 50.0% | 3.19% | -4.78% |
| 3 days | 18 | 0.62% | 0.20% | 55.6% | 3.25% | -3.68% |
| 7 days | 18 | -0.46% | -0.63% | 50.0% | 5.39% | -6.91% |
| 14 days | 18 | -2.51% | -1.54% | 44.4% | 5.87% | -10.20% |
| 30 days | 15 | -3.92% | -2.61% | 33.3% | 7.16% | -10.62% |
| 90 days | 15 | 1.26% | 2.52% | 60.0% | 28.57% | -8.14% |
Historical occurrences
18 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 1.65 | $0.32 | +0.87% | +2.87% | +5.16% | +3.30% | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | 2.08 | $0.34 | -0.07% | -2.34% | -1.01% | -3.04% | — | — |
| 2026-08-21 | 1.65 | $0.34 | +1.75% | +1.96% | +0.09% | -1.98% | — | — |
| 2026-06-05 | 1.67 | $0.33 | -3.64% | -1.67% | -4.71% | -3.53% | -2.16% | -2.17% |
| 2026-05-29 | 1.75 | $0.35 | -2.42% | -0.42% | -5.76% | -10.20% | -8.95% | -4.68% |
| 2026-04-02 | 3.23 | $0.33 | -0.43% | +0.59% | +1.48% | +0.61% | +0.54% | -3.11% |
| 2026-03-28 | 1.64 | $0.31 | +1.92% | +2.87% | +4.93% | +2.71% | +4.08% | +4.07% |
| 2026-03-23 | 1.62 | $0.31 | -1.05% | +1.26% | +3.51% | +5.38% | +7.16% | +5.05% |
| 2026-02-06 | 1.82 | $0.27 | +1.68% | +3.25% | +4.02% | +5.87% | +6.48% | +28.57% |
| 2026-01-31 | 1.56 | $0.29 | -2.67% | -3.68% | -6.91% | -4.07% | -4.50% | +11.05% |
| 2026-01-20 | 1.52 | $0.31 | -4.78% | -2.11% | -4.92% | -9.15% | -10.62% | +5.55% |
| 2026-01-17 | 9.37 | $0.31 | +3.19% | +0.98% | -3.69% | -4.77% | -9.14% | +5.89% |
| 2025-11-22 | 1.81 | $0.28 | -0.82% | -0.58% | +1.71% | +3.35% | +4.30% | +3.16% |
| 2025-11-15 | 1.60 | $0.29 | +0.70% | -0.37% | -5.51% | -3.90% | -5.22% | -4.23% |
| 2025-11-04 | 1.93 | $0.28 | +1.53% | +0.90% | +5.39% | +3.65% | -0.22% | +1.26% |
| 2025-10-31 | 1.56 | $0.29 | +1.28% | +1.98% | -3.00% | +0.16% | -3.92% | +0.97% |
| 2025-10-15 | 1.86 | $0.32 | +0.77% | -2.47% | +1.54% | -6.74% | -7.60% | -5.47% |
| 2025-10-11 | 2.12 | $0.32 | -1.94% | +0.65% | -3.63% | -5.29% | -9.40% | -8.14% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-04: +5.39%
- 2026-09-02: +5.16%
- 2026-03-28: +4.93%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-31: -6.91%
- 2026-05-29: -5.76%
- 2025-11-15: -5.51%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.