Transparent historical data
What Happens to Sui When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
Sui has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.88% and 28.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -44.9% to -38.1% | 2 |
| -38.1% to -31.3% | 2 |
| -31.3% to -24.6% | 3 |
| -24.6% to -17.8% | 1 |
| -17.8% to -11.0% | 1 |
| -11.0% to -4.3% | 1 |
| -4.3% to +2.5% | 0 |
| +2.5% to +9.2% | 3 |
| +9.2% to +16.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | -0.85% | 0.03% | 42.9% | 10.43% | -4.40% |
| 3 days | 14 | 0.47% | -0.75% | 50.0% | 10.96% | -16.13% |
| 7 days | 14 | -1.88% | -3.93% | 28.6% | 5.93% | -32.85% |
| 14 days | 14 | -13.55% | -13.95% | 0.0% | -0.43% | -32.61% |
| 30 days | 14 | -22.93% | -17.04% | 28.6% | 16.00% | -44.86% |
| 90 days | 11 | -36.60% | -34.92% | 0.0% | -20.76% | -48.87% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $0.69 | +0.31% | -2.71% | -0.96% | -2.30% | +8.03% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $0.69 | -1.52% | -0.40% | -2.89% | -0.43% | +7.69% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $0.72 | +5.62% | +2.38% | +5.93% | -5.68% | -5.60% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $1.06 | -3.19% | -6.10% | -14.61% | -32.61% | -32.51% | -20.76% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $1.06 | -1.18% | +5.50% | -2.09% | -17.39% | -27.89% | -36.93% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $1.34 | -3.65% | -16.13% | -32.85% | -29.04% | -30.82% | -32.38% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $1.49 | +2.31% | +1.62% | -2.12% | -24.25% | -35.11% | -36.73% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $1.82 | -0.53% | -2.49% | -0.81% | -16.64% | -44.86% | -48.87% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $1.56 | +2.92% | -5.80% | -5.07% | -10.46% | +16.00% | -34.84% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $1.56 | +0.60% | +3.61% | +0.32% | -4.77% | +9.14% | -36.99% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $2.07 | -4.40% | -4.91% | +4.60% | -21.87% | -17.97% | -45.59% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $2.49 | -4.34% | +1.33% | +0.69% | -20.60% | -39.92% | -36.60% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $2.52 | -3.01% | +2.61% | -3.47% | -8.90% | -29.78% | -25.97% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $2.54 | +10.43% | +10.96% | -1.67% | -0.43% | -14.97% | -28.45% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-07-14: +5.93%
- 2025-11-04: +4.60%
- 2025-10-22: +0.69%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -32.85%
- 2026-05-24: -14.61%
- 2025-12-13: -5.07%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.