Transparent historical data
What Happens to Sui When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
Sui has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -6.49% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -16.1% to -12.3% | 2 |
| -12.3% to -8.4% | 2 |
| -8.4% to -4.6% | 1 |
| -4.6% to -0.7% | 0 |
| -0.7% to +3.2% | 4 |
| +3.2% to +7.0% | 2 |
| +7.0% to +10.9% | 0 |
| +10.9% to +14.7% | 0 |
| +14.7% to +18.6% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | -1.04% | -0.55% | 41.7% | 4.98% | -5.55% |
| 3 days | 12 | 0.12% | -1.62% | 50.0% | 18.59% | -16.13% |
| 7 days | 12 | -6.49% | -5.84% | 33.3% | 29.62% | -32.85% |
| 14 days | 12 | -10.10% | -8.30% | 25.0% | 33.50% | -35.34% |
| 30 days | 12 | -8.45% | -10.26% | 25.0% | 21.87% | -36.91% |
| 90 days | 11 | -33.86% | -34.98% | 0.0% | -9.97% | -58.10% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $0.73 | -2.40% | +1.43% | +4.66% | +5.94% | -7.72% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $0.81 | +2.17% | -12.90% | -7.18% | -1.37% | -8.99% | -9.97% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $0.99 | -2.43% | -5.21% | -4.01% | -13.06% | -3.48% | -22.71% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $1.34 | -3.65% | -16.13% | -32.85% | -29.04% | -30.82% | -32.38% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $1.42 | +3.59% | +1.24% | -20.75% | -29.30% | -36.91% | -33.86% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $1.53 | -0.51% | -0.37% | -5.91% | -27.83% | -35.58% | -37.85% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $1.40 | +4.98% | +18.59% | +29.62% | +32.64% | -7.92% | -37.48% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $1.36 | +2.53% | +6.05% | +8.18% | +33.50% | +11.73% | -26.41% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $1.56 | -5.55% | -8.61% | -7.07% | -7.14% | +21.80% | -32.73% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $1.56 | +1.08% | +6.03% | +2.63% | -7.04% | +21.87% | -40.65% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $1.97 | -4.90% | -10.14% | -18.41% | -21.52% | -20.63% | -52.63% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $2.15 | -1.57% | +0.61% | -19.01% | -35.34% | -26.46% | -58.10% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-01: +29.62%
- 2025-12-26: +8.18%
- 2026-07-08: +4.66%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -32.85%
- 2026-01-26: -20.75%
- 2025-11-08: -19.01%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.