Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Sui
20 historical signal(s) detected for Sui; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $3.5249 | $3.5367 | +0.33% | 100.33 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $2.8096 | $2.5810 | -8.14% | 92.17 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $1.5426 | $1.6965 | +9.98% | 101.37 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $1.4809 | $1.3968 | -5.68% | 95.61 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $1.8951 | $1.4932 | -21.21% | 75.34 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $1.0249 | $0.9944 | -2.98% | 73.09 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $0.9944 | $0.9842 | -1.03% | 72.34 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $0.9921 | $0.9756 | -1.66% | 71.15 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $0.9756 | $0.9791 | +0.36% | 71.40 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $0.9790 | $0.8628 | -11.87% | 62.93 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $0.9622 | $0.9347 | -2.86% | 61.13 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $0.7572 | $0.8027 | +6.01% | 64.80 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $0.7619 | $0.7713 | +1.23% | 65.60 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $0.7056 | $0.7674 | +8.75% | 71.34 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $0.7833 | $0.7273 | -7.15% | 66.24 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.