Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
Stellar has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.35% and 42.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -17.2% to -9.1% | 1 |
| -9.1% to -1.0% | 4 |
| -1.0% to +7.1% | 7 |
| +7.1% to +15.2% | 1 |
| +15.2% to +23.2% | 0 |
| +23.2% to +31.3% | 0 |
| +31.3% to +39.4% | 0 |
| +39.4% to +47.5% | 0 |
| +47.5% to +55.6% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | -0.28% | 0.34% | 35.7% | 5.82% | -2.95% |
| 3 days | 14 | 0.09% | -1.36% | 50.0% | 4.39% | -12.07% |
| 7 days | 14 | -0.35% | 2.12% | 42.9% | 55.58% | -17.18% |
| 14 days | 14 | -7.48% | -0.15% | 21.4% | 65.01% | -21.36% |
| 30 days | 14 | -7.10% | -3.67% | 28.6% | 53.12% | -29.13% |
| 90 days | 11 | -29.47% | -19.32% | 18.2% | 36.55% | -37.04% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $0.17 | -1.55% | -5.82% | -5.77% | -7.68% | +2.50% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $0.17 | +0.06% | +1.24% | -6.22% | -7.29% | +4.50% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $0.18 | +2.10% | +2.41% | +4.29% | -4.86% | -11.76% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $0.15 | -0.29% | -0.24% | +55.58% | +43.70% | +37.00% | +36.55% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $0.15 | -2.52% | -0.49% | +1.68% | +65.01% | +53.12% | +6.24% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $0.20 | +5.82% | -12.07% | -17.18% | -21.36% | -19.84% | -17.28% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $0.21 | +2.63% | +2.20% | +0.49% | -14.19% | -23.39% | -16.28% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $0.23 | -0.83% | -3.85% | -0.86% | -6.94% | -29.13% | -32.03% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $0.24 | -0.28% | -7.57% | -8.10% | -10.55% | -6.15% | -33.08% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $0.24 | -0.12% | +0.41% | -0.51% | -8.58% | -2.53% | -34.70% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $0.28 | -2.95% | -3.12% | +7.98% | -11.28% | -7.09% | -37.04% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $0.31 | -2.01% | +1.62% | +1.20% | -14.13% | -24.67% | -31.42% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $0.31 | -1.08% | +1.88% | -0.18% | -4.36% | -16.83% | -24.03% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $0.32 | +5.80% | +4.39% | -2.72% | +0.47% | -7.11% | -29.47% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-05-24: +55.58%
- 2025-11-04: +7.98%
- 2026-07-14: +4.29%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -17.18%
- 2025-12-13: -8.10%
- 2026-07-31: -6.22%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.