Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 25, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Stellar
14 historical signal(s) detected for Stellar; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $0.3233 | $0.3145 | -2.72% | 97.28 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $0.3144 | $0.3181 | +1.20% | 98.45 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $0.2781 | $0.3003 | +7.98% | 106.30 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $0.2398 | $0.2386 | -0.51% | 105.76 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $0.2386 | $0.2192 | -8.10% | 97.19 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $0.2280 | $0.2261 | -0.86% | 96.35 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $0.2077 | $0.2087 | +0.49% | 96.82 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $0.1992 | $0.1649 | -17.18% | 80.19 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $0.1471 | $0.1496 | +1.68% | 81.53 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $0.1806 | $0.1884 | +4.29% | 85.04 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $0.1719 | $0.1612 | -6.22% | 79.75 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.