Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
Stellar has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.97% and 16.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -17.2% to -13.5% | 2 |
| -13.5% to -9.7% | 3 |
| -9.7% to -6.0% | 0 |
| -6.0% to -2.3% | 1 |
| -2.3% to +1.4% | 4 |
| +1.4% to +5.1% | 0 |
| +5.1% to +8.9% | 1 |
| +8.9% to +12.6% | 0 |
| +12.6% to +16.3% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | -0.77% | -0.75% | 41.7% | 5.82% | -5.97% |
| 3 days | 12 | 0.14% | -1.15% | 50.0% | 10.33% | -12.07% |
| 7 days | 12 | -3.97% | -4.70% | 16.7% | 16.30% | -17.18% |
| 14 days | 12 | -5.40% | -6.38% | 25.0% | 17.85% | -21.36% |
| 30 days | 12 | -12.21% | -8.59% | 41.7% | 10.12% | -26.40% |
| 90 days | 11 | -17.28% | -19.68% | 9.1% | 36.19% | -43.68% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $0.19 | -4.02% | +0.95% | -2.28% | +1.75% | -14.56% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $0.22 | -5.97% | -8.63% | -13.44% | -2.54% | -10.41% | -20.21% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $0.17 | +0.03% | -5.50% | +5.14% | -1.20% | +3.12% | +36.19% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $0.20 | +5.82% | -12.07% | -17.18% | -21.36% | -19.84% | -17.28% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $0.20 | +1.71% | +3.29% | -13.98% | -20.61% | -26.40% | -16.55% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $0.21 | -0.51% | -0.67% | -1.34% | -19.67% | -23.57% | -15.99% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $0.20 | +3.69% | +10.33% | +16.30% | +17.85% | +4.79% | -16.97% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $0.21 | +1.73% | +4.97% | -0.57% | +9.79% | +0.92% | -15.46% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $0.23 | -3.90% | -8.31% | -5.66% | -4.04% | +10.12% | -27.43% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $0.24 | -1.02% | +5.79% | -0.67% | -8.90% | +5.80% | -36.42% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $0.28 | -3.34% | -6.46% | -11.28% | -6.76% | -14.00% | -42.70% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $0.29 | -3.28% | +2.55% | -11.42% | -20.92% | -19.06% | -43.68% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-01: +16.30%
- 2026-03-20: +5.14%
- 2025-12-26: -0.57%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -17.18%
- 2026-01-26: -13.98%
- 2026-06-03: -13.44%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.