Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 20, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Stellar
12 historical signal(s) detected for Stellar; 9 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-15 | $0.2929 | $0.2594 | -11.42% | 88.58 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-12-14 | $0.2395 | $0.2379 | -0.67% | 87.99 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-22 | $0.2294 | $0.2165 | -5.66% | 83.01 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-02 | $0.2098 | $0.2086 | -0.57% | 82.53 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026-01-29 | $0.2131 | $0.2103 | -1.34% | 81.43 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $0.1992 | $0.1649 | -17.18% | 67.44 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $0.1654 | $0.1739 | +5.14% | 70.90 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $0.2221 | $0.1923 | -13.44% | 61.37 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $0.1887 | $0.1844 | -2.28% | 59.97 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.