Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar When Fear & Greed Falls Below 10?
Stellar has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.52% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -11.2% to -9.0% | 1 |
| -9.0% to -6.9% | 0 |
| -6.9% to -4.7% | 1 |
| -4.7% to -2.5% | 0 |
| -2.5% to -0.4% | 1 |
| -0.4% to +1.8% | 0 |
| +1.8% to +4.0% | 1 |
| +4.0% to +6.1% | 0 |
| +6.1% to +8.3% | 2 |
All forward horizons
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Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 8.00 | $0.21 | -1.56% | -11.19% | -7.20% | +1.97% | -8.26% | -10.57% |
| 2026-03-22 | 10.00 | $0.16 | -2.70% | +8.31% | +4.69% | +0.80% | +8.25% | +35.75% |
| 2026-03-09 | 8.00 | $0.15 | +1.73% | +7.41% | +14.26% | +5.41% | +10.33% | +43.27% |
| 2026-03-02 | 10.00 | $0.15 | +0.75% | +3.34% | -4.01% | +9.68% | +8.13% | +48.89% |
| 2026-02-06 | 9.00 | $0.16 | +8.18% | -2.01% | -5.04% | -3.55% | -8.86% | -1.92% |
| 2025-11-15 | 10.00 | $0.26 | +0.03% | -4.88% | -10.72% | -2.29% | -11.55% | -39.63% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-03-09: +14.26%
- 2026-03-22: +4.69%
- 2026-03-02: -4.01%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-15: -10.72%
- 2026-06-08: -7.20%
- 2026-02-06: -5.04%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.