Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar When Bitcoin Rises 5% in a Day?
Stellar has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.52% and 28.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -7.8% to -5.6% | 1 |
| -5.6% to -3.5% | 1 |
| -3.5% to -1.4% | 1 |
| -1.4% to +0.7% | 2 |
| +0.7% to +2.8% | 0 |
| +2.8% to +4.9% | 0 |
| +4.9% to +7.0% | 0 |
| +7.0% to +9.1% | 1 |
| +9.1% to +11.2% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 7 | -0.87% | -0.96% | 28.6% | 6.71% | -9.33% |
| 3 days | 7 | -1.85% | 0.14% | 42.9% | 14.97% | -10.38% |
| 7 days | 7 | -0.52% | 0.64% | 28.6% | 11.22% | -7.75% |
| 14 days | 6 | 0.51% | -1.47% | 50.0% | 6.37% | -13.82% |
| 30 days | 5 | 1.65% | -5.71% | 60.0% | 2.76% | -18.12% |
| 90 days | 5 | -9.35% | -0.23% | 40.0% | 39.19% | -38.91% |
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $0.18 | -2.73% | +1.56% | -5.34% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $0.17 | +6.71% | +14.97% | +8.99% | +3.14% | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $0.16 | -0.87% | +8.32% | +11.22% | +6.37% | +1.65% | +19.23% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $0.16 | -1.88% | -5.80% | -0.23% | +6.35% | +2.06% | +39.19% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $0.16 | -0.12% | -1.85% | -1.89% | -2.11% | +2.76% | -9.35% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $0.18 | -9.33% | -10.38% | -7.75% | -8.71% | -16.92% | -11.31% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $0.25 | +1.47% | -5.85% | -0.52% | -13.82% | -18.12% | -38.91% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-04-14: +11.22%
- 2026-08-20: +8.99%
- 2026-03-05: -0.23%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-07: -7.75%
- 2026-09-04: -5.34%
- 2026-02-26: -1.89%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.