Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
Stellar has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -9.24% and 16.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -22.0% to -20.5% | 1 |
| -20.5% to -18.9% | 1 |
| -18.9% to -17.3% | 0 |
| -17.3% to -15.7% | 0 |
| -15.7% to -14.2% | 0 |
| -14.2% to -12.6% | 0 |
| -12.6% to -11.0% | 0 |
| -11.0% to -9.4% | 2 |
| -9.4% to -7.9% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -0.57% | -0.90% | 50.0% | 8.18% | -12.27% |
| 3 days | 6 | -5.32% | -3.18% | 33.3% | 9.91% | -12.07% |
| 7 days | 6 | -9.24% | -8.37% | 16.7% | 7.94% | -18.95% |
| 14 days | 6 | -3.05% | -5.64% | 16.7% | 6.41% | -21.36% |
| 30 days | 6 | -10.66% | -13.32% | 0.0% | -7.86% | -22.05% |
| 90 days | 6 | -20.13% | -19.88% | 0.0% | -1.92% | -31.83% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $0.22 | -5.97% | -8.63% | -13.44% | -2.54% | -10.41% | -20.21% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $0.16 | +8.18% | -2.01% | -5.04% | -3.55% | -8.86% | -1.92% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $0.20 | -12.27% | -10.72% | -18.95% | -12.63% | -22.05% | -20.05% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $0.20 | +5.82% | -12.07% | -17.18% | -21.36% | -19.84% | -17.28% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $0.24 | -2.20% | +4.42% | +7.94% | +6.41% | -7.86% | -31.83% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $0.32 | +1.06% | +9.91% | -3.52% | -0.15% | -10.91% | -28.02% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-21: +7.94%
- 2025-10-11: -3.52%
- 2026-02-06: -5.04%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -18.95%
- 2026-01-30: -17.18%
- 2026-06-03: -13.44%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.