Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After Funding Rises to +0.01%?
Stellar has recorded 54 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.14% and 40.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -17.0% to -11.1% | 1 |
| -11.1% to -5.2% | 9 |
| -5.2% to +0.7% | 20 |
| +0.7% to +6.5% | 18 |
| +6.5% to +12.4% | 5 |
| +12.4% to +18.3% | 0 |
| +18.3% to +24.2% | 0 |
| +24.2% to +30.1% | 0 |
| +30.1% to +36.0% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 55 | 1.83% | 1.49% | 63.6% | 15.23% | -8.47% |
| 3 days | 55 | 0.43% | 1.06% | 50.9% | 35.97% | -16.99% |
| 7 days | 54 | -1.14% | 1.50% | 40.7% | 62.28% | -16.57% |
| 14 days | 54 | -5.38% | -1.22% | 37.0% | 43.70% | -20.61% |
| 30 days | 52 | -7.71% | -3.61% | 34.6% | 57.72% | -29.27% |
| 90 days | 42 | -16.75% | -8.35% | 35.7% | 62.75% | -43.24% |
Historical occurrences
55 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | 0.01 | $0.17 | +2.05% | +1.46% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-30 | 0.01 | $0.18 | -2.79% | -2.19% | +2.39% | +0.17% | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | 0.01 | $0.15 | +9.96% | +30.43% | +17.94% | +13.56% | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | 0.01 | $0.16 | +1.15% | +8.89% | +27.77% | +11.77% | +12.64% | — |
| 2026-08-12 | 0.01 | $0.16 | -1.58% | -2.39% | -4.45% | +12.70% | +7.87% | — |
| 2026-08-02 | 0.01 | $0.17 | +1.87% | -1.35% | -3.77% | -7.55% | +3.74% | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 0.01 | $0.18 | -5.77% | -5.79% | -4.56% | -10.97% | +0.07% | — |
| 2026-07-21 | 0.01 | $0.19 | +1.93% | -3.26% | -8.78% | -9.12% | -9.68% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 0.01 | $0.18 | +2.13% | +0.59% | +4.13% | -5.64% | -13.56% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 0.01 | $0.18 | +2.82% | +2.87% | +3.98% | +3.47% | -10.94% | — |
| 2026-07-03 | 0.01 | $0.20 | +2.49% | +2.13% | -6.41% | -7.05% | -14.14% | — |
| 2026-07-01 | 0.01 | $0.19 | +4.48% | +8.20% | +0.12% | -2.16% | -8.78% | — |
| 2026-06-27 | 0.01 | $0.18 | -2.18% | -1.67% | +14.91% | +7.33% | +2.75% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 0.01 | $0.21 | +1.44% | +9.83% | -5.12% | -18.22% | -11.75% | -16.95% |
| 2026-06-02 | 0.01 | $0.24 | -8.47% | -16.99% | -16.57% | -12.07% | -18.86% | -28.04% |
| 2026-05-31 | 0.01 | $0.23 | +13.05% | -3.40% | -7.63% | -18.68% | -24.10% | -21.93% |
| 2026-05-26 | 0.01 | $0.15 | -1.41% | +35.97% | +62.28% | +35.40% | +23.83% | +33.49% |
| 2026-05-24 | 0.01 | $0.15 | -0.29% | -0.24% | +55.58% | +43.70% | +37.00% | +36.55% |
| 2026-05-15 | 0.01 | $0.16 | -4.64% | -7.93% | -9.70% | +25.45% | +15.36% | -1.67% |
| 2026-05-09 | 0.01 | $0.16 | -0.61% | +2.93% | -5.52% | -12.39% | +25.73% | -1.45% |
| 2026-05-05 | 0.01 | $0.16 | +1.44% | +0.43% | +6.87% | -6.66% | +32.56% | +10.46% |
| 2026-04-30 | 0.01 | $0.16 | -3.82% | -2.94% | -1.80% | -3.55% | +57.72% | +5.62% |
| 2026-04-23 | 0.01 | $0.18 | -0.69% | -3.83% | -6.74% | -8.42% | -18.86% | +8.70% |
| 2026-04-21 | 0.01 | $0.17 | +2.99% | +0.91% | -4.36% | -9.36% | -17.35% | +8.15% |
| 2026-04-17 | 0.01 | $0.17 | +2.96% | -1.47% | +3.62% | -6.41% | -10.38% | +11.24% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-05-26: +62.28%
- 2026-05-24: +55.58%
- 2026-08-17: +27.77%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-02: -16.57%
- 2026-01-26: -13.98%
- 2026-02-03: -11.74%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or above 0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.