Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After Funding Falls to -0.01%?
Stellar has recorded 60 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.90% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -14.0% to -8.0% | 5 |
| -8.0% to -1.9% | 24 |
| -1.9% to +4.2% | 18 |
| +4.2% to +10.2% | 10 |
| +10.2% to +16.3% | 2 |
| +16.3% to +22.3% | 0 |
| +22.3% to +28.4% | 0 |
| +28.4% to +34.4% | 0 |
| +34.4% to +40.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 60 | -1.45% | -0.47% | 36.7% | 24.25% | -11.51% |
| 3 days | 60 | -1.84% | -0.37% | 36.7% | 40.51% | -14.03% |
| 7 days | 60 | -3.90% | -0.96% | 33.3% | 81.29% | -21.89% |
| 14 days | 60 | -4.37% | -2.34% | 30.0% | 54.93% | -27.67% |
| 30 days | 59 | -3.98% | -3.88% | 35.6% | 63.49% | -33.58% |
| 90 days | 49 | -18.21% | -13.15% | 26.5% | 38.25% | -43.24% |
Historical occurrences
61 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -0.02 | $0.18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-18 | -0.03 | $0.16 | -2.10% | +14.87% | +22.51% | +12.15% | — | — |
| 2026-08-10 | -0.01 | $0.16 | -0.64% | -1.84% | -3.76% | +22.96% | +15.65% | — |
| 2026-08-04 | -0.02 | $0.17 | -1.55% | -5.82% | -5.77% | -7.68% | +2.50% | — |
| 2026-07-30 | -0.01 | $0.17 | +0.07% | -0.55% | -4.05% | -7.24% | +4.48% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -0.02 | $0.17 | +1.27% | +0.05% | -0.37% | -6.11% | +7.91% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | -0.02 | $0.19 | -2.76% | -4.94% | -8.33% | -12.04% | +7.68% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | -0.01 | $0.18 | +2.10% | +2.41% | +4.29% | -4.86% | -11.76% | — |
| 2026-07-02 | -0.01 | $0.20 | +1.05% | +4.90% | -8.02% | -4.36% | -12.64% | — |
| 2026-06-28 | -0.02 | $0.17 | -0.59% | +8.57% | +18.99% | +7.32% | -1.02% | — |
| 2026-06-25 | -0.01 | $0.19 | -3.41% | -6.25% | +6.34% | -2.19% | -3.98% | — |
| 2026-06-21 | -0.01 | $0.22 | -2.91% | -9.76% | -19.64% | -4.38% | -12.80% | — |
| 2026-06-18 | -0.02 | $0.23 | +4.08% | -4.07% | -17.77% | -12.55% | -17.63% | -21.85% |
| 2026-06-16 | -0.01 | $0.21 | +1.44% | +9.83% | -5.12% | -18.22% | -11.75% | -16.95% |
| 2026-06-12 | -0.02 | $0.19 | -1.88% | -0.34% | +22.37% | -6.62% | -2.72% | -5.42% |
| 2026-06-09 | -0.02 | $0.20 | -5.05% | -5.41% | +5.39% | -0.01% | -10.55% | -7.44% |
| 2026-06-06 | -0.02 | $0.20 | +4.65% | -0.23% | -7.39% | +7.42% | +0.14% | -9.07% |
| 2026-05-30 | -0.01 | $0.26 | -11.51% | -6.60% | -21.89% | -27.67% | -33.58% | -27.85% |
| 2026-05-28 | -0.02 | $0.16 | +24.25% | +40.51% | +27.63% | +11.63% | +8.45% | +11.52% |
| 2026-05-23 | -0.02 | $0.14 | +3.11% | +4.34% | +81.29% | +41.60% | +46.34% | +26.67% |
| 2026-05-20 | -0.01 | $0.14 | +0.22% | -0.03% | +2.84% | +54.93% | +63.49% | +10.24% |
| 2026-05-13 | -0.01 | $0.16 | -2.10% | -4.77% | -11.66% | -9.15% | +18.02% | -0.60% |
| 2026-05-04 | -0.02 | $0.16 | -0.23% | +2.44% | +7.34% | -5.50% | +40.65% | +8.19% |
| 2026-04-28 | -0.01 | $0.17 | -2.61% | -4.70% | -5.23% | +1.28% | -1.57% | +9.68% |
| 2026-04-09 | -0.01 | $0.16 | -1.61% | -2.50% | +0.28% | +12.13% | +3.85% | +19.79% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-05-23: +81.29%
- 2026-05-28: +27.63%
- 2026-08-18: +22.51%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-05-30: -21.89%
- 2026-06-21: -19.64%
- 2026-01-29: -18.58%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or below -0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.