Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After 5 Consecutive Red Days?
This study currently has no completed 7-day observations in the locally stored Stellar dataset.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -6.4% to +0.4% | 4 |
| +0.4% to +7.2% | 2 |
| +7.2% to +14.0% | 0 |
| +14.0% to +20.9% | 0 |
| +20.9% to +27.7% | 0 |
| +27.7% to +34.5% | 0 |
| +34.5% to +41.3% | 0 |
| +41.3% to +48.1% | 0 |
| +48.1% to +54.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | -3.71 | $0.19 | -5.01% | -8.96% | -3.32% | -3.21% | -6.53% | — |
| 2026-05-20 | -2.52 | $0.14 | +0.22% | -0.03% | +2.84% | +54.93% | +63.49% | +10.24% |
| 2026-02-20 | -1.45 | $0.16 | +2.39% | -5.20% | +2.12% | -1.57% | +0.95% | -9.68% |
| 2026-02-12 | -2.44 | $0.16 | +0.99% | +12.45% | +4.09% | +4.88% | +5.51% | +4.65% |
| 2026-01-11 | -0.83 | $0.23 | -1.00% | +11.72% | +1.91% | -6.39% | -29.29% | -31.41% |
| 2025-12-15 | -3.56 | $0.23 | -3.90% | -8.31% | -5.66% | -4.04% | +10.12% | -27.43% |
| 2025-09-24 | -1.01 | $0.36 | +2.81% | -0.86% | -0.18% | +5.30% | -14.63% | -39.60% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-12: +4.09%
- 2026-05-20: +2.84%
- 2026-02-20: +2.12%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-12-15: -5.66%
- 2026-06-24: -3.32%
- 2025-09-24: -0.18%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 5 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.