Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After 3 Consecutive Red Days?
Stellar has recorded 28 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.76% and 28.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -17.7% to -12.7% | 1 |
| -12.7% to -7.6% | 7 |
| -7.6% to -2.6% | 6 |
| -2.6% to +2.5% | 6 |
| +2.5% to +7.6% | 3 |
| +7.6% to +12.6% | 3 |
| +12.6% to +17.7% | 1 |
| +17.7% to +22.7% | 0 |
| +22.7% to +27.8% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 29 | -1.02% | -0.85% | 34.5% | 8.18% | -5.52% |
| 3 days | 29 | -1.99% | -0.38% | 41.4% | 10.09% | -11.71% |
| 7 days | 28 | -2.76% | -1.02% | 28.6% | 27.77% | -17.71% |
| 14 days | 28 | -2.15% | 1.99% | 46.4% | 74.19% | -12.17% |
| 30 days | 28 | -4.26% | -3.18% | 32.1% | 45.06% | -29.75% |
| 90 days | 23 | -15.87% | -12.24% | 34.8% | 36.19% | -42.58% |
Historical occurrences
29 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | -3.57 | $0.17 | +2.05% | +1.46% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | -1.08 | $0.16 | +1.15% | +8.89% | +27.77% | +11.77% | +12.64% | — |
| 2026-08-06 | -2.20 | $0.16 | -2.19% | -0.27% | -3.32% | +3.21% | +8.89% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | -2.43 | $0.18 | +0.19% | -3.36% | -3.25% | -9.28% | +12.27% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | -5.62 | $0.19 | -4.02% | +0.95% | -2.28% | +1.75% | -14.56% | — |
| 2026-06-22 | -2.91 | $0.21 | -3.47% | -11.71% | -17.71% | -3.11% | -8.45% | — |
| 2026-06-10 | -5.05 | $0.19 | -4.99% | -2.25% | +12.59% | +1.40% | -3.14% | +0.66% |
| 2026-06-04 | -5.97 | $0.21 | -3.55% | +1.68% | -12.54% | +7.82% | -2.36% | -15.87% |
| 2026-05-18 | -1.65 | $0.15 | -1.45% | -3.72% | -1.26% | +74.19% | +45.06% | +5.85% |
| 2026-05-14 | -2.10 | $0.16 | +2.01% | -4.50% | -9.58% | +2.99% | +18.28% | +1.91% |
| 2026-04-25 | -1.31 | $0.17 | -1.88% | -3.97% | -7.83% | -5.51% | -14.89% | +5.25% |
| 2026-04-05 | -0.61 | $0.16 | +0.99% | +1.03% | -5.11% | +5.34% | -2.66% | +25.99% |
| 2026-03-20 | -2.56 | $0.17 | +0.03% | -5.50% | +5.14% | -1.20% | +3.12% | +36.19% |
| 2026-03-08 | -1.27 | $0.15 | -1.39% | +5.45% | +10.77% | +6.83% | +3.69% | +35.00% |
| 2026-02-18 | -2.12 | $0.17 | -2.87% | -1.99% | -9.84% | -8.96% | -0.50% | -11.50% |
| 2026-02-10 | -1.06 | $0.16 | -0.60% | -2.06% | +6.17% | -4.95% | -0.43% | +6.01% |
| 2026-02-06 | -3.66 | $0.16 | +8.18% | -2.01% | -5.04% | -3.55% | -8.86% | -1.92% |
| 2026-01-17 | -0.99 | $0.23 | +1.94% | -4.64% | -6.13% | -6.78% | -24.40% | -25.11% |
| 2026-01-09 | -1.55 | $0.23 | -0.98% | -2.78% | -0.85% | -7.93% | -29.75% | -31.59% |
| 2025-12-31 | -2.51 | $0.21 | -4.45% | +4.55% | +15.66% | +20.04% | -5.38% | -20.44% |
| 2025-12-26 | -1.12 | $0.21 | +1.73% | +4.97% | -0.57% | +9.79% | +0.92% | -15.46% |
| 2025-12-13 | -3.03 | $0.24 | -0.28% | -7.57% | -8.10% | -10.55% | -6.15% | -33.08% |
| 2025-12-07 | -0.12 | $0.24 | -1.02% | +5.79% | -0.67% | -8.90% | +5.80% | -36.42% |
| 2025-11-22 | -2.20 | $0.23 | -0.69% | +10.09% | +9.44% | +3.54% | -6.54% | -31.31% |
| 2025-11-14 | -3.34 | $0.27 | -3.25% | -5.24% | -11.69% | -4.67% | -11.28% | -42.17% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-17: +27.77%
- 2025-12-31: +15.66%
- 2026-06-10: +12.59%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-22: -17.71%
- 2026-06-04: -12.54%
- 2025-11-14: -11.69%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 3 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.