Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After a 5% One-Day Rise?
Stellar has recorded 25 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.58% and 32.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -20.9% to -15.5% | 3 |
| -15.5% to -10.1% | 3 |
| -10.1% to -4.7% | 4 |
| -4.7% to +0.7% | 10 |
| +0.7% to +6.1% | 2 |
| +6.1% to +11.5% | 2 |
| +11.5% to +16.9% | 0 |
| +16.9% to +22.2% | 0 |
| +22.2% to +27.6% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 26 | 0.64% | 0.69% | 53.8% | 24.25% | -9.33% |
| 3 days | 25 | 0.08% | 0.64% | 52.0% | 40.51% | -19.65% |
| 7 days | 25 | -2.58% | -3.23% | 32.0% | 27.63% | -20.87% |
| 14 days | 24 | -6.55% | -7.46% | 25.0% | 11.63% | -26.57% |
| 30 days | 23 | -12.21% | -12.34% | 21.7% | 8.45% | -38.01% |
| 90 days | 22 | -25.29% | -17.46% | 22.7% | 39.19% | -47.21% |
Historical occurrences
26 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 8.12 | $0.19 | -8.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 5.16 | $0.18 | -2.73% | +1.56% | -5.34% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 9.96 | $0.17 | +6.71% | +14.97% | +8.99% | +3.14% | — | — |
| 2026-07-01 | 8.00 | $0.19 | +4.48% | +8.20% | +0.12% | -2.16% | -8.78% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 11.80 | $0.21 | +1.44% | +9.83% | -5.12% | -18.22% | -11.75% | -16.95% |
| 2026-06-01 | 13.05 | $0.26 | -6.64% | -19.65% | -20.87% | -26.57% | -27.49% | -30.89% |
| 2026-05-28 | 10.99 | $0.16 | +24.25% | +40.51% | +27.63% | +11.63% | +8.45% | +11.52% |
| 2026-04-17 | 7.17 | $0.17 | +2.96% | -1.47% | +3.62% | -6.41% | -10.38% | +11.24% |
| 2026-03-24 | 6.90 | $0.17 | +4.13% | +4.08% | +0.25% | -6.69% | +5.75% | +25.56% |
| 2026-03-11 | 5.11 | $0.16 | +0.45% | +3.22% | +9.69% | +9.73% | -2.22% | +27.74% |
| 2026-03-05 | 5.47 | $0.16 | -1.88% | -5.80% | -0.23% | +6.35% | +2.06% | +39.19% |
| 2026-02-26 | 8.55 | $0.16 | -0.12% | -1.85% | -1.89% | -2.11% | +2.76% | -9.35% |
| 2026-02-14 | 5.09 | $0.16 | +5.95% | +3.15% | -1.04% | -3.59% | +2.91% | -1.53% |
| 2026-02-07 | 8.18 | $0.18 | -9.33% | -10.38% | -7.75% | -8.71% | -16.92% | -11.31% |
| 2026-01-31 | 5.82 | $0.21 | -5.29% | -14.03% | -15.34% | -21.90% | -26.72% | -24.82% |
| 2026-01-14 | 15.23 | $0.25 | -6.19% | -10.52% | -17.81% | -17.41% | -38.01% | -38.14% |
| 2026-01-05 | 5.32 | $0.23 | +8.41% | +0.08% | -4.21% | -8.92% | -23.76% | -30.74% |
| 2026-01-03 | 5.52 | $0.22 | +0.84% | +15.14% | +3.62% | +2.73% | -20.42% | -25.76% |
| 2025-12-20 | 5.91 | $0.22 | -0.47% | +0.52% | -2.66% | +0.38% | -2.90% | -24.57% |
| 2025-12-10 | 5.23 | $0.25 | -1.28% | -5.84% | -13.37% | -14.31% | -9.11% | -40.48% |
| 2025-12-03 | 8.86 | $0.25 | +1.47% | -5.85% | -0.52% | -13.82% | -18.12% | -38.91% |
| 2025-11-24 | 7.52 | $0.25 | +3.11% | +4.60% | +0.45% | -4.14% | -12.21% | -34.87% |
| 2025-11-11 | 5.38 | $0.30 | -6.26% | -10.72% | -17.84% | -15.11% | -16.72% | -46.19% |
| 2025-11-08 | 8.69 | $0.29 | -3.28% | +2.55% | -11.42% | -20.92% | -19.06% | -43.68% |
| 2025-10-13 | 5.80 | $0.34 | +2.79% | -5.01% | -7.07% | -3.47% | -17.70% | -33.89% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-05-28: +27.63%
- 2026-03-11: +9.69%
- 2026-08-20: +8.99%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-01: -20.87%
- 2025-11-11: -17.84%
- 2026-01-14: -17.81%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.