Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After a 3x Volume Spike?
This study currently has no completed 7-day observations in the locally stored Stellar dataset.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -19.7% to -16.5% | 1 |
| -16.5% to -13.4% | 0 |
| -13.4% to -10.3% | 3 |
| -10.3% to -7.2% | 0 |
| -7.2% to -4.0% | 0 |
| -4.0% to -0.9% | 0 |
| -0.9% to +2.2% | 0 |
| +2.2% to +5.3% | 1 |
| +5.3% to +8.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | 3.31 | $0.18 | +11.16% | +9.96% | +3.26% | +1.64% | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 3.83 | $0.19 | +2.29% | +0.07% | -0.68% | -2.15% | -11.72% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 3.34 | $0.21 | +1.44% | +9.83% | -5.12% | -18.22% | -11.75% | -16.95% |
| 2026-06-11 | 4.09 | $0.18 | +4.85% | +2.36% | +23.28% | +1.38% | +4.29% | +2.79% |
| 2026-05-28 | 5.20 | $0.16 | +24.25% | +40.51% | +27.63% | +11.63% | +8.45% | +11.52% |
| 2025-10-29 | 3.81 | $0.32 | -0.72% | -4.16% | -15.15% | -11.51% | -19.65% | -34.91% |
| 2025-10-11 | 3.43 | $0.32 | +1.06% | +9.91% | -3.52% | -0.15% | -10.91% | -28.02% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-05-28: +27.63%
- 2026-06-11: +23.28%
- 2026-08-21: +3.26%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-29: -15.15%
- 2026-06-16: -5.12%
- 2025-10-11: -3.52%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.