Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After a 3% One-Day Rise?
Stellar has recorded 43 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.66% and 30.2% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -26.6% to -18.8% | 4 |
| -18.8% to -11.0% | 11 |
| -11.0% to -3.1% | 11 |
| -3.1% to +4.7% | 8 |
| +4.7% to +12.5% | 6 |
| +12.5% to +20.3% | 0 |
| +20.3% to +28.1% | 0 |
| +28.1% to +35.9% | 0 |
| +35.9% to +43.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 44 | -0.54% | 0.03% | 40.9% | 24.25% | -9.33% |
| 3 days | 43 | -1.47% | -1.14% | 39.5% | 40.51% | -19.65% |
| 7 days | 43 | -2.66% | -1.87% | 30.2% | 55.58% | -20.87% |
| 14 days | 41 | -6.41% | -5.30% | 29.3% | 43.70% | -26.57% |
| 30 days | 40 | -11.06% | -9.26% | 22.5% | 37.00% | -38.01% |
| 90 days | 39 | -18.83% | -14.38% | 25.6% | 39.19% | -47.21% |
Historical occurrences
44 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 8.12 | $0.19 | -8.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | 3.27 | $0.19 | -2.99% | -9.75% | -0.99% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 5.16 | $0.18 | -2.73% | +1.56% | -5.34% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 9.96 | $0.17 | +6.71% | +14.97% | +8.99% | +3.14% | — | — |
| 2026-07-01 | 8.00 | $0.19 | +4.48% | +8.20% | +0.12% | -2.16% | -8.78% | — |
| 2026-06-18 | 4.03 | $0.23 | +4.08% | -4.07% | -17.77% | -12.55% | -17.63% | -21.85% |
| 2026-06-16 | 11.80 | $0.21 | +1.44% | +9.83% | -5.12% | -18.22% | -11.75% | -16.95% |
| 2026-06-12 | 4.85 | $0.19 | -1.88% | -0.34% | +22.37% | -6.62% | -2.72% | -5.42% |
| 2026-06-07 | 4.65 | $0.21 | -3.15% | -9.47% | -11.96% | +1.72% | -5.86% | -15.48% |
| 2026-06-01 | 13.05 | $0.26 | -6.64% | -19.65% | -20.87% | -26.57% | -27.49% | -30.89% |
| 2026-05-28 | 10.99 | $0.16 | +24.25% | +40.51% | +27.63% | +11.63% | +8.45% | +11.52% |
| 2026-05-24 | 3.11 | $0.15 | -0.29% | -0.24% | +55.58% | +43.70% | +37.00% | +36.55% |
| 2026-05-11 | 4.25 | $0.17 | -0.66% | -6.27% | -11.96% | -13.07% | +13.42% | -3.01% |
| 2026-05-09 | 3.38 | $0.16 | -0.61% | +2.93% | -5.52% | -12.39% | +25.73% | -1.45% |
| 2026-04-21 | 4.21 | $0.17 | +2.99% | +0.91% | -4.36% | -9.36% | -17.35% | +8.15% |
| 2026-04-17 | 7.17 | $0.17 | +2.96% | -1.47% | +3.62% | -6.41% | -10.38% | +11.24% |
| 2026-04-14 | 3.83 | $0.16 | -0.87% | +8.32% | +11.22% | +6.37% | +1.65% | +19.23% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.92 | $0.16 | -3.68% | -5.15% | -5.26% | +9.48% | -3.24% | +22.26% |
| 2026-03-24 | 6.90 | $0.17 | +4.13% | +4.08% | +0.25% | -6.69% | +5.75% | +25.56% |
| 2026-03-17 | 3.64 | $0.18 | -0.96% | -5.80% | -4.84% | -4.60% | -10.01% | +8.73% |
| 2026-03-11 | 5.11 | $0.16 | +0.45% | +3.22% | +9.69% | +9.73% | -2.22% | +27.74% |
| 2026-03-05 | 5.47 | $0.16 | -1.88% | -5.80% | -0.23% | +6.35% | +2.06% | +39.19% |
| 2026-02-26 | 8.55 | $0.16 | -0.12% | -1.85% | -1.89% | -2.11% | +2.76% | -9.35% |
| 2026-02-14 | 5.09 | $0.16 | +5.95% | +3.15% | -1.04% | -3.59% | +2.91% | -1.53% |
| 2026-02-07 | 8.18 | $0.18 | -9.33% | -10.38% | -7.75% | -8.71% | -16.92% | -11.31% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-05-24: +55.58%
- 2026-05-28: +27.63%
- 2026-06-12: +22.37%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-01: -20.87%
- 2025-11-11: -17.84%
- 2026-01-14: -17.81%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.