Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After a 15% Seven-Day Drop?
Stellar has recorded 10 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.52% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -32.9% to -30.0% | 2 |
| -30.0% to -27.0% | 1 |
| -27.0% to -24.1% | 0 |
| -24.1% to -21.2% | 1 |
| -21.2% to -18.3% | 0 |
| -18.3% to -15.4% | 2 |
| -15.4% to -12.5% | 0 |
| -12.5% to -9.6% | 1 |
| -9.6% to -6.6% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 10 | -0.25% | 0.16% | 50.0% | 4.65% | -3.97% |
| 3 days | 10 | -1.71% | -0.61% | 40.0% | 9.91% | -11.19% |
| 7 days | 10 | -1.52% | -1.75% | 50.0% | 6.34% | -9.41% |
| 14 days | 10 | -3.59% | -3.04% | 20.0% | 7.42% | -14.19% |
| 30 days | 10 | -9.58% | -9.16% | 20.0% | 7.46% | -23.39% |
| 90 days | 9 | -17.35% | -19.31% | 0.0% | -6.64% | -32.88% |
Historical occurrences
10 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | -17.77 | $0.19 | -3.41% | -6.25% | +6.34% | -2.19% | -3.98% | — |
| 2026-06-08 | -20.87 | $0.21 | -1.56% | -11.19% | -7.20% | +1.97% | -8.26% | -10.57% |
| 2026-06-06 | -21.89 | $0.20 | +4.65% | -0.23% | -7.39% | +7.42% | +0.14% | -9.07% |
| 2026-02-05 | -18.58 | $0.17 | -3.66% | -5.50% | -9.41% | -5.71% | -11.06% | -6.64% |
| 2026-01-21 | -17.81 | $0.21 | +2.63% | +2.20% | +0.49% | -14.19% | -23.39% | -16.28% |
| 2025-12-18 | -15.89 | $0.21 | -1.61% | +3.71% | +0.83% | -4.40% | +7.46% | -17.35% |
| 2025-11-18 | -17.84 | $0.25 | +3.69% | -4.04% | +3.32% | -5.19% | -14.75% | -30.74% |
| 2025-11-05 | -15.15 | $0.27 | +3.76% | +8.50% | +4.30% | -5.20% | -6.65% | -32.88% |
| 2025-10-16 | -16.36 | $0.32 | -3.97% | -3.20% | -5.20% | -2.79% | -20.16% | -22.24% |
| 2025-10-11 | -21.35 | $0.32 | +1.06% | +9.91% | -3.52% | -0.15% | -10.91% | -28.02% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-25: +6.34%
- 2025-11-05: +4.30%
- 2025-11-18: +3.32%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-05: -9.41%
- 2026-06-06: -7.39%
- 2026-06-08: -7.20%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.