Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After a 15% 30-Day Correction?
Stellar has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.70% and 40.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -7.9% to -5.4% | 3 |
| -5.4% to -3.0% | 3 |
| -3.0% to -0.5% | 1 |
| -0.5% to +1.9% | 3 |
| +1.9% to +4.3% | 3 |
| +4.3% to +6.8% | 2 |
| +6.8% to +9.2% | 2 |
| +9.2% to +11.7% | 1 |
| +11.7% to +14.1% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | 0.50% | 0.17% | 50.0% | 5.91% | -5.80% |
| 3 days | 20 | 2.37% | 2.15% | 60.0% | 14.10% | -7.86% |
| 7 days | 20 | -1.70% | 2.99% | 40.0% | 27.77% | -15.89% |
| 14 days | 20 | -1.11% | 1.40% | 45.0% | 45.37% | -15.19% |
| 30 days | 20 | -1.28% | -0.44% | 50.0% | 51.74% | -19.75% |
| 90 days | 15 | -23.83% | -19.85% | 13.3% | 43.27% | -43.20% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | -15.76 | $0.16 | +1.15% | +8.89% | +27.77% | +11.77% | +12.64% | — |
| 2026-08-15 | -16.08 | $0.16 | -0.07% | -0.01% | +27.68% | +13.57% | +12.13% | — |
| 2026-08-04 | -17.13 | $0.17 | -1.55% | -5.82% | -5.77% | -7.68% | +2.50% | — |
| 2026-07-18 | -17.63 | $0.19 | +1.19% | +1.56% | -4.14% | -7.25% | -15.76% | — |
| 2026-06-29 | -33.58 | $0.17 | +1.12% | +14.10% | +17.75% | +7.99% | +0.82% | — |
| 2026-05-21 | -17.35 | $0.14 | +1.87% | +2.86% | +13.90% | +45.37% | +51.74% | +7.69% |
| 2026-03-09 | -16.92 | $0.15 | +1.73% | +7.41% | +14.26% | +5.41% | +10.33% | +43.27% |
| 2026-02-02 | -20.42 | $0.18 | +3.47% | -2.24% | -7.71% | -2.40% | -13.60% | -8.68% |
| 2026-01-02 | -18.12 | $0.21 | +5.52% | +12.07% | +10.42% | +9.48% | -4.29% | -18.83% |
| 2025-12-30 | -15.04 | $0.22 | -2.51% | -3.40% | +17.36% | +1.55% | -2.61% | -23.83% |
| 2025-12-25 | -16.80 | $0.21 | -1.12% | +4.06% | -5.19% | +10.27% | +0.05% | -18.00% |
| 2025-12-19 | -19.11 | $0.21 | +5.91% | +4.58% | +1.34% | +0.76% | +11.34% | -18.01% |
| 2025-12-16 | -15.03 | $0.22 | -0.46% | -6.12% | -0.06% | -2.08% | +7.50% | -23.18% |
| 2025-12-11 | -16.72 | $0.25 | -1.65% | -4.89% | -15.89% | -15.19% | -8.83% | -36.63% |
| 2025-12-08 | -19.06 | $0.24 | +1.57% | +5.52% | -3.21% | -8.69% | +2.69% | -36.59% |
| 2025-12-01 | -18.53 | $0.25 | -5.80% | +4.05% | -4.56% | -7.63% | -15.26% | -35.72% |
| 2025-11-12 | -17.70 | $0.28 | -1.46% | -7.86% | -9.11% | -10.47% | -12.62% | -43.20% |
| 2025-10-30 | -15.05 | $0.32 | -5.52% | -3.42% | -11.33% | -12.17% | -19.75% | -33.94% |
| 2025-10-17 | -18.75 | $0.31 | -1.08% | +1.88% | -0.18% | -4.36% | -16.83% | -24.03% |
| 2025-10-11 | -16.59 | $0.32 | +1.06% | +9.91% | -3.52% | -0.15% | -10.91% | -28.02% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-17: +27.77%
- 2026-08-15: +27.68%
- 2026-06-29: +17.75%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-12-11: -15.89%
- 2025-10-30: -11.33%
- 2025-11-12: -9.11%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 30 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.