Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After a 10% One-Day Drop?
Stellar has recorded 3 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -7.63% and 0.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 3 | 3.47% | 5.86% | 100.0% | 13.05% | 1.06% |
| 3 days | 3 | -2.24% | 1.42% | 33.3% | 9.91% | -3.40% |
| 7 days | 3 | -7.63% | -6.29% | 0.0% | -3.52% | -7.71% |
| 14 days | 3 | -2.40% | -7.07% | 0.0% | -0.15% | -18.68% |
| 30 days | 3 | -13.60% | -16.20% | 0.0% | -10.91% | -24.10% |
| 90 days | 3 | -21.93% | -19.54% | 0.0% | -8.68% | -28.02% |
Historical occurrences
3 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | -11.51 | $0.23 | +13.05% | -3.40% | -7.63% | -18.68% | -24.10% | -21.93% |
| 2026-02-02 | -12.27 | $0.18 | +3.47% | -2.24% | -7.71% | -2.40% | -13.60% | -8.68% |
| 2025-10-11 | -15.72 | $0.32 | +1.06% | +9.91% | -3.52% | -0.15% | -10.91% | -28.02% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-10-11: -3.52%
- 2026-05-31: -7.63%
- 2026-02-02: -7.71%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-02: -7.71%
- 2026-05-31: -7.63%
- 2025-10-11: -3.52%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.