Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
Solana has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.89% and 57.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -33.5% to -29.0% | 1 |
| -29.0% to -24.6% | 0 |
| -24.6% to -20.1% | 0 |
| -20.1% to -15.6% | 0 |
| -15.6% to -11.2% | 0 |
| -11.2% to -6.7% | 0 |
| -6.7% to -2.3% | 3 |
| -2.3% to +2.2% | 4 |
| +2.2% to +6.7% | 6 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | -0.43% | 0.18% | 35.7% | 10.80% | -6.44% |
| 3 days | 14 | 0.22% | -0.24% | 50.0% | 13.82% | -14.42% |
| 7 days | 14 | 0.89% | -1.14% | 57.1% | 6.66% | -33.49% |
| 14 days | 14 | -5.74% | -9.38% | 21.4% | 8.96% | -33.30% |
| 30 days | 14 | -14.16% | -8.29% | 35.7% | 41.81% | -35.79% |
| 90 days | 11 | -29.56% | -25.74% | 9.1% | 9.36% | -39.19% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $73.49 | +0.31% | -1.17% | +3.32% | +3.38% | +36.61% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $74.46 | -2.24% | -1.23% | -2.46% | +2.34% | +41.81% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $74.93 | +3.84% | +0.45% | +3.76% | -1.05% | +0.84% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $85.67 | -0.52% | -2.34% | -3.48% | -27.42% | -16.13% | +9.36% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $85.32 | -1.32% | +2.17% | -0.40% | -4.87% | -15.63% | -12.62% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $117.88 | -0.34% | -14.42% | -33.49% | -33.30% | -28.17% | -29.56% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $126.11 | +2.87% | +1.07% | +0.87% | -22.58% | -34.46% | -32.36% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $135.87 | -0.02% | +2.36% | +6.66% | -6.19% | -35.79% | -38.69% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $132.30 | +0.66% | -3.47% | -4.62% | -7.64% | +5.30% | -34.31% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $133.23 | -0.73% | -0.00% | -0.70% | -5.28% | +0.90% | -33.24% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $165.89 | -6.44% | -6.53% | +0.90% | -21.15% | -12.69% | -39.19% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $185.72 | -3.03% | +4.20% | +4.62% | -16.44% | -28.06% | -28.17% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $184.68 | -1.37% | +1.69% | +3.65% | -0.10% | -24.59% | -20.67% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $177.98 | +10.80% | +13.82% | +5.43% | +8.96% | -5.96% | -23.66% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-10: +6.66%
- 2025-10-12: +5.43%
- 2025-10-22: +4.62%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.49%
- 2025-12-13: -4.62%
- 2026-05-24: -3.48%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.