Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
Solana has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.40% and 25.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -33.5% to -28.7% | 1 |
| -28.7% to -24.0% | 0 |
| -24.0% to -19.2% | 0 |
| -19.2% to -14.4% | 1 |
| -14.4% to -9.7% | 3 |
| -9.7% to -4.9% | 0 |
| -4.9% to -0.1% | 4 |
| -0.1% to +4.6% | 1 |
| +4.6% to +9.4% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | -0.64% | -0.72% | 33.3% | 4.66% | -5.65% |
| 3 days | 12 | -2.37% | -2.14% | 41.7% | 7.05% | -14.42% |
| 7 days | 12 | -3.40% | -6.86% | 25.0% | 9.38% | -33.49% |
| 14 days | 12 | -5.79% | -8.88% | 16.7% | 17.66% | -33.30% |
| 30 days | 12 | -7.76% | -9.60% | 33.3% | 12.54% | -34.63% |
| 90 days | 11 | -31.87% | -26.63% | 9.1% | 38.94% | -51.51% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $80.59 | -3.47% | -3.12% | -3.45% | -3.10% | -9.87% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $74.14 | -3.50% | -14.17% | -12.43% | -0.91% | +8.74% | +38.94% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $89.14 | +0.83% | -2.95% | -2.89% | -11.32% | -3.33% | -19.24% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $117.88 | -0.34% | -14.42% | -33.49% | -33.30% | -28.17% | -29.56% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $118.66 | +4.66% | +5.65% | -14.98% | -26.48% | -33.29% | -27.36% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $129.73 | -0.94% | -1.80% | -3.36% | -29.04% | -34.63% | -33.67% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $124.52 | +1.96% | +7.05% | +9.38% | +17.66% | -5.66% | -33.31% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $120.02 | +1.81% | +4.28% | +5.78% | +15.30% | +6.14% | -23.51% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $129.50 | -1.37% | -4.88% | -2.68% | -3.36% | +12.54% | -31.87% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $132.26 | -0.23% | +4.26% | +0.69% | -4.90% | +4.34% | -35.94% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $153.26 | -5.65% | -9.13% | -10.79% | -6.68% | -13.67% | -45.86% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $161.69 | -2.41% | +3.52% | -14.04% | -20.48% | -18.39% | -51.51% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-01: +9.38%
- 2025-12-26: +5.78%
- 2025-12-07: +0.69%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.49%
- 2026-01-26: -14.98%
- 2025-11-08: -14.04%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.