Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana When Bitcoin Rises 5% in a Day?
Solana has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.55% and 28.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -11.7% to -9.8% | 1 |
| -9.8% to -7.9% | 1 |
| -7.9% to -6.1% | 0 |
| -6.1% to -4.2% | 2 |
| -4.2% to -2.3% | 0 |
| -2.3% to -0.4% | 0 |
| -0.4% to +1.4% | 0 |
| +1.4% to +3.3% | 0 |
| +3.3% to +5.2% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 7 | -1.95% | -0.29% | 42.9% | 4.44% | -3.25% |
| 3 days | 7 | -0.20% | -0.13% | 42.9% | 10.02% | -8.18% |
| 7 days | 7 | -1.55% | 1.13% | 28.6% | 19.59% | -5.13% |
| 14 days | 6 | -1.92% | 0.56% | 16.7% | 17.65% | -6.90% |
| 30 days | 5 | -5.86% | -5.31% | 20.0% | 5.17% | -11.68% |
| 90 days | 5 | -11.27% | -14.13% | 20.0% | 1.67% | -37.44% |
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $103.96 | -1.95% | +2.43% | -5.13% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $85.33 | +2.72% | +10.02% | +19.59% | +17.65% | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $86.64 | -3.25% | +2.84% | -1.55% | -2.11% | +5.17% | -11.27% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $91.07 | -2.33% | -8.18% | -4.96% | -1.05% | -11.68% | -18.59% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $88.08 | -2.27% | -3.87% | +3.40% | -1.73% | -5.76% | -5.01% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $86.98 | +0.65% | -0.20% | -2.90% | -2.51% | -5.86% | +1.67% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $138.67 | +4.44% | -3.92% | -0.56% | -6.90% | -8.45% | -37.44% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +19.59%
- 2026-02-26: +3.40%
- 2025-12-03: -0.56%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-09-04: -5.13%
- 2026-03-05: -4.96%
- 2026-02-07: -2.90%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.