Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
Solana has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -7.98% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -33.3% to -29.0% | 1 |
| -29.0% to -24.7% | 0 |
| -24.7% to -20.4% | 0 |
| -20.4% to -16.1% | 1 |
| -16.1% to -11.8% | 0 |
| -11.8% to -7.5% | 0 |
| -7.5% to -3.2% | 0 |
| -3.2% to +1.1% | 1 |
| +1.1% to +5.4% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -3.64% | -1.13% | 16.7% | 10.93% | -5.72% |
| 3 days | 6 | -4.86% | -2.76% | 33.3% | 11.26% | -14.42% |
| 7 days | 6 | -7.98% | -10.13% | 33.3% | 5.42% | -33.49% |
| 14 days | 6 | 0.80% | -6.44% | 50.0% | 5.42% | -33.30% |
| 30 days | 6 | -9.39% | -8.22% | 33.3% | 8.74% | -28.17% |
| 90 days | 6 | -23.66% | -10.50% | 33.3% | 38.94% | -38.81% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $74.14 | -3.50% | -14.17% | -12.43% | -0.91% | +8.74% | +38.94% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $78.40 | +10.93% | +11.26% | +0.29% | +5.42% | +6.66% | +13.73% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $105.49 | -4.37% | -7.45% | -17.01% | -16.43% | -17.77% | -20.62% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $117.88 | -0.34% | -14.42% | -33.49% | -33.30% | -28.17% | -29.56% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $133.61 | -3.77% | -2.27% | +5.42% | +4.05% | -5.86% | -38.81% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $188.79 | -5.72% | +10.49% | -3.52% | +2.51% | -12.91% | -26.70% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-21: +5.42%
- 2026-02-06: +0.29%
- 2025-10-11: -3.52%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.49%
- 2026-02-01: -17.01%
- 2026-06-03: -12.43%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.