Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
Solana has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.87% and 52.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -33.3% to -28.0% | 1 |
| -28.0% to -22.7% | 0 |
| -22.7% to -17.5% | 2 |
| -17.5% to -12.2% | 2 |
| -12.2% to -6.9% | 2 |
| -6.9% to -1.6% | 3 |
| -1.6% to +3.7% | 3 |
| +3.7% to +9.0% | 4 |
| +9.0% to +14.2% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -1.08% | -1.00% | 31.6% | 9.47% | -8.65% |
| 3 days | 19 | -1.06% | -1.13% | 42.1% | 11.85% | -15.22% |
| 7 days | 19 | 0.87% | -2.75% | 52.6% | 21.39% | -33.49% |
| 14 days | 19 | -1.65% | -4.67% | 42.1% | 14.24% | -33.30% |
| 30 days | 18 | -3.63% | -4.33% | 27.8% | 28.10% | -34.46% |
| 90 days | 18 | -24.10% | -17.53% | 16.7% | 63.37% | -43.43% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $96.87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $104.11 | +1.42% | -1.06% | -2.10% | -1.65% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $63.63 | -2.28% | +4.98% | +4.94% | +9.50% | +28.10% | +63.37% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $81.16 | -8.65% | -15.22% | -17.69% | -8.89% | -4.68% | +25.29% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $81.49 | +6.32% | +4.26% | +2.48% | +6.69% | +15.71% | -5.86% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $86.56 | -4.11% | -5.98% | -8.68% | -3.76% | -0.42% | -21.50% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $90.12 | -1.08% | -3.52% | +1.87% | -9.88% | -1.43% | -18.48% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $84.73 | -1.31% | +0.34% | +4.02% | +6.08% | -2.59% | -18.79% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $78.75 | -0.61% | +11.85% | +6.34% | +3.98% | +15.50% | +8.79% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $97.63 | -5.71% | -10.91% | -15.01% | -12.59% | -8.89% | -13.88% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $105.49 | -4.37% | -7.45% | -17.01% | -16.43% | -17.77% | -20.62% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $117.88 | -0.34% | -14.42% | -33.49% | -33.30% | -28.17% | -29.56% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $126.11 | +2.87% | +1.07% | +0.87% | -22.58% | -34.46% | -32.36% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $133.23 | -0.73% | -0.00% | -0.70% | -5.28% | +0.90% | -33.24% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $126.67 | +9.47% | +9.74% | +5.17% | +0.82% | -1.70% | -33.89% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $133.61 | -3.77% | -2.27% | +5.42% | +4.05% | -5.86% | -38.81% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $138.99 | +0.20% | -5.88% | -7.49% | -1.14% | -6.83% | -43.43% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $165.89 | -6.44% | -6.53% | +0.90% | -21.15% | -12.69% | -39.19% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $188.79 | -5.72% | +10.49% | -3.52% | +2.51% | -12.91% | -26.70% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $193.41 | +5.90% | +8.96% | +21.39% | +14.24% | +0.27% | -36.68% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +21.39%
- 2026-02-23: +6.34%
- 2025-11-21: +5.42%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.49%
- 2026-06-02: -17.69%
- 2026-02-01: -17.01%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.